Rishi Sunak is facing a potentially acrimonious vote on the Boris Johnson partygate report at the start of next week.
A debate and vote on the report, published by the House of Commons Privileges Committee on Thursday, will take place on Monday – Mr Johnson‘s 59th birthday.
But it will not be a gathering Mr Johnson will get to take part in, as he has now officially left the House of Commons.
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There may, however, be a chance for some of his loyal supporters to voice their support for the former prime minister.
Those who stuck with Mr Johnson to the end – many of whom were subsequently honoured – are sanguine about what Monday’s result will be.
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg told Sky News: “Inevitably, Boris will lose the vote because you have the whole of the Opposition against him… you also have the Boris haters in the Conservative Party.”
It could be that Sir Jacob, alongside Nadine Dorries, might decide to voice their support for their former leader in the House.
MPs will also vote on whether Mr Johnson should be stripped of his access to the Palace of Westminster – although allies of the former prime minister suggest he could regain access if he were to successfully stand in another constituency.
While the motion to be voted on is simply worded – “that this House approves the Fifth Report from the Committee of Privileges” – the answer over which way to vote will be complicated for many Tory MPs.
Mr Johnson is popular with many in the Conservative Party membership, so opposing him will be a headache with associations.
The notably unennobled Ms Dorries tweeted: “Any Conservative MP who would vote for this report is fundamentally not a Conservative and will be held to account by members and the public. Deselections may follow. It’s serious.”
Meanwhile, the former prime minister’s lack of popularity with the rest of the electorate makes supporting him equally unappealing.
YouGov polling of 3,031 adults in the UK found that only 15% of those asked thought the recommended 90-day suspension for Mr Johnson was too harsh.
So it may come as a relief to know that Downing Street has put them on a one-line whip – meaning turning up in Westminster is not compulsory.
And the vote itself is likely to be free, so no one on the government benches will be told how they have to cast their ballots.
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Many eyes will be looking at the way Mr Sunak – and other government ministers – vote on a report which excoriated their former leader and a government of which many were part.
Downing Street refused to be drawn on how the prime minister will vote when asked on Thursday evening.
“He intends to take the time to fully consider the report,” Mr Sunak’s spokesman said.
Conservative Penny Mordaunt, who as leader of the House of Commons announced the vote, said: “My advice to all MPs, having had the committee carry out the work we asked them to do, is to read the report, is to make their own judgments about it and take the task that is our privilege to do seriously and soberly, and members should use their own judgment on that.”
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She added: “These are difficult matters for the House. We have to look at the evidence, we have to look at the report, but we’re talking about people who are friends and colleagues. It will be a painful process and a sad process for all of us, the task that we face on Monday.
“But all of us must do what we think is right, and others must leave us alone to do so.”
