With one double-overtime loss to Oregon on Saturday, Penn State dropped out of the
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The enigma: Michigan. It’s still too early to tell how good the Wolverines are, and a bye week didn’t answer any questions. A gritty road win at Nebraska on Sept. 20, though, is early evidence things are trending in the right direction following the Sept. 6 loss at Oklahoma. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, the defense — for the most part — has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. If the Wolverines can split with those two opponents and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee will give them serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams will be out there — and how will their résumés stack up. Right now, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Michigan (35.2%) a better chance of reaching the CFP than Penn State (22.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Penn State
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Jackets fans are still sweating the overtime escape at Wake Forest, and Demon Deacons fans are still mad about the no-call of offside at the end of the game that would’ve given Wake a critical first down. With the win, Georgia Tech now has the fourth-best chance in the league to reach the ACC title game (22%) behind Miami, Virginia and Duke. If the Jackets don’t make the ACC title game, it’s going to be difficult to earn an at-large bid because of the overall schedule strength — unless they find a way to beat rival Georgia. ESPN’s FPI currently gives Duke a 60.5% chance to beat the Jackets at home on Oct. 18, and gives Georgia an 84.7% chance to win. If that comes to fruition, a 10-2 Georgia Tech is likely out. But what if Georgia Tech finishes as a two-loss ACC runner-up, with its lone losses to Georgia and the ACC champ? That could be an interesting debate, but Georgia Tech still might not have enough big wins to impress the committee.
The enigma: Virginia. The Cavaliers had the spotlight to themselves on Friday night in a double-overtime win against Florida State — a stunning victory that illustrated the program’s investments in transfers and facilities and catapulted the Hoos into ACC contention. Was it a one-and-done upset? Or the start of something bigger under coach Tony Elliott? Virginia now has the second-best chance in the league to reach the conference title game (37.5%) behind Miami. The question is if the Cavaliers can sustain that success and build on it. ESPN’s FPI says no, giving them less than a 50% chance to win at Louisville on Saturday and at Duke on Nov. 15. If Virginia can win those games, though, and reach the ACC championship, that win against FSU could help the Hoos earn an at-large bid if they don’t win the ACC. Florida State, though, has to remain relevant in the CFP race for that win to continue to resonate with the committee.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Florida State, Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Cal, Louisville, NC State, Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: Texas Tech. The undefeated Red Raiders were No. 13 in this week’s projection but would still be in the playoff as the projected Big 12 champion. Texas Tech’s best win was Sept. 20 at Utah, but it still has multiple chances to enhance its résumé and play its way into the top 12. If the selection committee ranks Utah, Arizona State and BYU — and the Red Raiders go undefeated during the regular season — it’s highly likely they would be the second Big 12 team if they didn’t win the conference title game. Right now, ESPN’s FPI projects Texas Tech will win each of its remaining games. Nobody in the Big 12 has a better chance to reach the league championship (51.5%) or win it (31.6%).
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Georgia/No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Miami
