Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET
Jan. 9: Notre Dame has chance at history in CFP semifinals
David Purdum: In 2008, Florida lost to Ole Miss as 23-point favorites in an SEC contest that was followed by Tim Tebow’s viral post-game speech. The Gators bounced back to win the national title that season, becoming the only eventual champion in the BCS/College Football Playoff era to lose as more than a three-touchdown favorite during the regular season.
Notre Dame suffered an even bigger upset this year, losing to Northern Illinois as 28.5-point favorites in Week 2 of the 2024 regular season. The Fighting Irish’s national championship odds drifted to as long as 100-1 after the loss to Northern Illinois and Notre Dame responded with 12 consecutive wins, reaching the College Football Playoff semifinals.
The Fighting Irish began Thursday as 1-point favorites over Penn State in the Capital One Orange Bowl. The line had grown to as high as Notre Dame -2.5 early in the week, before coming back down to a consensus -1 in the hours leading up to kickoff.
Bookmaker John Murray of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas said “a lot of money” came in on the Irish last week, shortly after their win over Georgia.
“They really didn’t do much offensively in that game at all,” Murray said. “I think we may be heading towards an all-Big Ten championship game.”
The winner of Thursday night’s contents will face the winner of the Goodyear Cotton Bowl between Ohio State and Texas in the national championship game on Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
The Buckeyes, who also suffered a big upset loss during the regular season, falling to Michigan as 20.5-point favorites, were a consensus 5.5-point favorite over Texas on Thursday.
Since 1998, only two teams have lost straight-up as 20-plus-point favorites in the regular season and gone on to win the national championship in the BCS/College Football Playoff era. In addition to 2008 Florida, 2016 Clemson lost to Pittsburgh as a 21-point favorite and won the national title.
Jan 5: Titans end season with all-time worst ATS record
David Purdum and Doug Greenberg: On Sunday, the Tennessee Titans finished their regular season with another loss, this time by a final score of 23-14 to the Houston Texans. Coming in as 2.5-point favorites, the Titans dropped to 2-15 (.118) against the spread, the worst ATS record in a season by any team in the Super Bowl era.
For first-year coach Brian Callahan, it’s the worst start to a tenure for any head coach in the Super Bowl era, per ESPN Research. The previous ATS low point was held by the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who went 2-10-2 (.167) against the number in their first season as an NFL expansion team. Six other teams had previously gone 3-13 (.188) ATS.
“It’s a weird situation,” John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN. “The point spread is supposedly the great equalizer for a team no matter how good or bad they are. I think the Titans franchise is so irrelevant that nobody even noticed.”
Including Sunday, Tennessee was a favorite six times throughout the campaign, but failed to cover the spread in that scenario even once, getting close in a three-point win over the New England Patriots as 3.5-point favorites in Week 9. The Titans’ only two ATS wins of the season came in outright road victories as underdogs against the Miami Dolphins in Week 4 (+2.5) and the Texans in Week 12 (+7.5).
Assuming vigorish of -110 each game, a bettor fading Tennessee with $100 each week would be up $1,163.64 by season’s end.
“Caesars had the Titans rated quite low, so their performance was not a real surprise,” Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow told ESPN. “However, as a sportsbook, we look for parity in the spread, and the Titans offered trend bettors good value throughout the year, even when we thought we had set the line at the extreme.”
Bettors once again faded Tennessee en masse on Sunday, with 87.4% of handle backing Houston’s spread at ESPN BET. The Texans also became the last team to hit the over on their season win total (9.5) with the victory.
The game also produced something of a silver lining for the Titans: With the loss and the New England Patriots’ win over the Buffalo Bills, Tennessee now holds the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft.
Odds and ends
Opening lines for the NFL wild-card round (per ESPN BET)
The Circa Sports Survivor Contest concluded Sunday with eight winners, who will evenly split the pot of $14,266,000, meaning each contestant will take home $1.78M. The contest began Week 18 with 18 entries, but lost over half of the pool with losses from the Atlanta Falcons (8) and Green Bay Packers (2).
The Chicago Bears defeated the Green Bay Packers outright after entering the contest at 10.5-point underdogs. It matched the largest upset win of the season and the franchise’s largest since 2013 when it was +10.5 to Green Bay.
With the No. 1 seed in the AFC locked up, the Kansas City Chiefs sat their starters and closed as 11.5-point to the Denver Broncos, KC’s largest underdog role since 2014. The Broncos, needing a win to make the playoffs, won big 38-0 in their first time favored over the Chiefs since 2017.
Favorites went 144-127 (.531) against the spread during the 2024 regular season, the second straight winning season for favorites ATS.
