Bitcoin heads for nearly 40% November gain as it edges closer to $100,000

The price of bitcoin is tracking for one of its best months of the year after former President Donald Trump’s election victory catapulted the flagship cryptocurrency to new records consistently throughout the month.

Bitcoin is on pace to post a 38% gain for November, according to Coin Metrics, which would make the month its best since February, when it gained 45% following the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs, and ahead of its first new record of the year since November 2021.

On an intraday basis, bitcoin was last higher by more than 3% at $97,845.00. Coinbase was flat, while bitcoin proxies MicroStrategy and Mara Holdings gained 4% and 6%, respectively.

Investors in November were pricing in Trump’s second presidency. During his re-election campaign this year, he pitched himself to Americans as the candidate who would bring the crypto industry out of a dark period defined for many by the absence of clear digital assets regulation and the regulation-by-enforcement approach the Securities and Exchange Commission, under Chair Gary Gensler, has taken toward crypto businesses.

Trump’s victory sent bitcoin rallying to as high as just a couple hundred dollars shy of the highly anticipated $100,000 milestone. While another Trump term is expected to add another layer of legitimacy to the young crypto industry, it also serves as a macro catalyst, implying larger budget deficits, potentially more inflation and changes to the international role of the dollar — all things that would have a positive impact on the price of bitcoin.

After the election, bitcoin ETFs, led by BlackRock’s popular IBIT fund, registered strong inflows — including their largest day of inflows ever at one point — initially offsetting sell pressure from long-term holders who took profits at new highs. In the same period, options on bitcoin ETFs began trading, ushering in a new way to trade and speculate on the price of bitcoin.

Bulls expect bitcoin’s price to reach $100,000 by the end of 2024 and potentially double by the end of 2025. While the outcome of the U.S. election boosted the price in the short term, many investors agree its impact as a bitcoin catalyst will stay behind in 2024. The coin was already largely derisked from a regulatory perspective, there’s little uncertainty about how it trades or its role as digital gold, and investors are relying on its fundamentals to keep taking the price higher.

Specifically, between the reduction in bitcoin’s supply after this year’s April halving and the growing demand for bitcoin by institutions, as well as by states and countries as a treasury reserve asset, the price is expected to soar. Bitcoin’s cycle peaks usually take at least a year after the halving to come.