Israel and Hezbollah on brink of all-out war – the key moments that brought us here

An Israeli military chief has told his troops that airstrikes in Lebanon are preparing the way for a “possible” ground assault designed to “degrade” Hezbollah, bringing the region closer to all-out war.

While the Lebanese militant group, which is backed by Iran and an ally of Hamas, has been involved in a constant tit-for-tat with Israel since 7 October, the recent strikes in Lebanon have killed hundreds of people and caused tens of thousands to flee.

Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli strikes on Wednesday had killed 51 people and injured more than 220.

Now, with a possible ground invasion looming, Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at the turning points in the last two months which have brought us to this point.

Missile strike on football field

The start of the current escalation began on 27 July, when a missile struck a football field in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers.

Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack, but analysis by Sky News’ Data and Forensics Unit found the group had been targeting the Ma’ale Golani military base, 2.4km (1.5 miles) away, on the same day.

The alleged launch site puts the football field squarely in the path of a rocket aimed at the military base, suggesting it may have overshot its target.

Hezbollah said it had targeted the base in response to Israeli attacks on southern villages in Lebanon.

Assassination campaign begins

In response to the deadly attack, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed heavy retaliation against Hezbollah which would come in the form of a months-long campaign of assassinations targeting Hezbollah’s senior leadership – which military analysts say is intended to sow chaos and confusion in the militant group’s ranks.

Israel’s first target was Fuad Shukr, the right-hand man to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. On the night of 30 July, three days after the strike at Majdal Shams, Israel struck a residential building in the heart of Beirut, killing Shukr.

Killing of Hamas leader

Hours later, an explosion in Iran’s capital Tehran blew up a room in a military-run guest house, killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has not claimed or denied responsibility for the blast. Iran vowed to respond to this attack, but the retaliation never came.

Sky News’ defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke says the lack of response to Haniyeh’s death was “critical” in showing the limits of Iran’s willingness to retaliate against attacks on its allies.

Over the following weeks, Hezbollah increased its rate of attacks on Israel but held back from broader escalation as Israel’s assassination campaign continued.

On 20 August, Ibrahim Aqil, Hezbollah’s head of operations and commander of its elite Radwan forces, was killed in an Israeli strike.

Five days later, Israel targeted numerous locations across Lebanon in its biggest wave of strikes since the war began. Conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED recorded 74 individual attacks. The IDF said these strikes were intended to disrupt forthcoming Hezbollah attacks.

Exploding devices in Lebanon

But it wasn’t until 17 September that Israel appeared to really show its hand with a series of deadly exploding pagers and radio devices. Pagers exploded inside supermarkets and phone shops across Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon.

The attacks on 17 and 18 September killed at least 32 people and injured more than 3,000 others.

Hezbollah blamed Israel for the attacks but Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he “rejects” any connection to the operation. US government sources reportedly acknowledged Israel’s involvement in private.

Reports also suggested the timing of the attacks was not of Israel’s choosing, but that it felt compelled to act after Hezbollah grew suspicious of the devices.

Since then, Israel has reportedly moved troops from its elite 98th Division to the border with Lebanon.

Israel has also escalated its bombing of Lebanon, with NASA satellite data showing an increase in thermal anomalies in previous days, which is likely linked to the Israeli strikes.

On 19 September, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said it hit around 100 Hezbollah launch sites across southern Lebanon.

It’s also continued to target senior Hezbollah commanders. A strike in Beirut one day later killed top commander Ahmed Wahbi, while a strike on 23 September reportedly targeted Ali Karaki, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front.

“They’re preparing the battlefield… they’re preparing southern Lebanon for a ground invasion,” says Prof Clarke.

Hezbollah has estimated 150,000 rockets

Preparing the ground means reducing Hezbollah’s ability to use its ultimate weapon – the estimated 150,000 rockets at its disposal.

That arsenal potentially gives them the ability to launch thousands of rockets per hour over several days, striking deep into Israel and overwhelming its air defences.

“If Israel is going to move in on the ground against Hezbollah, they want to do all they can to make it very difficult for Hezbollah to do that,” Prof Clarke says.

Israel’s defences have been tested in recent days, with its system of missile alerts recording a dramatic rise in attacks.

Hezbollah’s most audacious attack came on 25 September where sirens sounded across Tel Aviv. Shortly after, a surface-to-air missile was intercepted.

Hezbollah claimed responsibility and said it was targeting the headquarters of Israel’s spy agency Mossad. Israeli data for 25 September shows an average of one alert every five minutes.

The situation on the ground remains tense and the cost of an all-out war would be high for both Israel and Hezbollah.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.