The 2025 MLB playoffs are here — and for some teams, October is going to last a lot longer than it is for some others.
We start with the wild-card round, where the Cincinnati Reds became the first team eliminated from postseason contention — on the very first day of October, no less — with a two-game series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The next day, the Cleveland Guardians lost their series to the Detroit Tigers, the San Diego Padres fell to the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox were knocked out by the New York Yankees in a trio of Game 3s.
In the division series, the first team to go: those same Yankees, who were defeated by their American League East rival Toronto Blue Jays in four games.
What’s next for the teams and towns that won’t be celebrating a World Series parade this fall? As each contender is eliminated, ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield will list that club’s key free agents and biggest offseason questions and make their predictions for the long, cold winter ahead.
Teams eliminated in division series
Eliminated by: Blue Jays
Key free agents: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, CF Trent Grisham, RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Devin Williams, OF/1B Cody Bellinger ($25 million player option)
Biggest offseason priority: With Bellinger almost certain to opt out after an under-the-radar 29-homer, 5-WAR season, and Grisham coming off a shocking 34-homer season, the Yankees will have not only two big hitters to replace but a hole in center field. Jasson Dominguez is not the answer there given his poor defensive metrics in left field, so there might be pressure to re-sign either Bellinger or Grisham, with Bellinger the more desirable player given that Grisham had hit under .200 in the three previous seasons. Bellinger’s ability to play first base is a big plus, although Ben Rice will likely take over there on a full-time basis. Outside of Kyle Tucker, the rest of the outfield free agent class is pretty thin, however, so the Yankees will have competition for Bellinger’s services.
The other option is to hand center field to
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Biggest offseason priority: Cease and King will venture into free agency, and the Padres will have to replace them in the rotation. San Diego will have Joe Musgrove back in 2026, but he’ll be coming off Tommy John surgery. Yu Darvish will still be there, but he’ll be in his age-39 season, having accumulated fewer than 100 innings each of the past two years. The depth beyond them, outside of Nick Pivetta, is suspect. First base will also be a priority unless the team brings Arraez back.
Will they spend again? The Padres lost their local-television contract in 2023, then missed out on the playoffs despite fielding arguably the most talented team in franchise history. Shortly thereafter, Peter Seidler, their beloved, free-spending owner, died. The Padres dropped the payroll by roughly 30% the following year. A 25% increase followed in 2025, putting them at roughly $215 million. Where will they go in 2026? It’s hard to say. But Manny Machado‘s salary will keep increasing — from $13 million in 2025 to $21 million in 2026 and $35 million thereafter. If they want to keep surrounding him with talent as he ages, they’ll have to keep spending.
Offseason prediction: The Padres will pay six players — Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Darvish, Musgrove, Machado and Pivetta — a combined $120 million in 2026. The team’s success will come down to the production of those players — along with Jackson Merrill and Mason Miller, who are still not in their prime earning years. But A.J. Preller will look for ways to acquire a front-line starting pitcher and will get creative if he has to. Last offseason, he landed Pivetta on a deal that paid him only $4 million in 2025. This offseason, that front-line starter might have to come via trade. — Gonzalez
Eliminated by: Yankees
Key free agents: 3B Alex Bregman (opt-out), RHP Lucas Giolito ($19 million mutual option), OF Rob Refsnyder, RHP Dustin May, LHP Steven Matz
Biggest offseason priority: Re-signing Bregman if he opts out … and improving the starting pitching depth. Bregman had a solid season, hitting .273/.360/.462 around an injury, but aside from the numbers he also brings fire and leadership to the team. It’s also possible Bregman will opt back in at $40 million per season (for 2026 and 2027), but he had a good enough season that he’ll probably opt out. Yes, Marcelo Mayer is a possible replacement — especially if the Red Sox direct that money instead to the pitching staff.
Giolito had a solid season as a low-volume starter in his return from Tommy John surgery, so there could be mutual interest there on a longer deal. But outside of Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and perhaps rookie Connelly Early, who looked good in four late-season starts, the projected rotation is unsettled.
Will the Red Sox trade any of their outfielders/young players? It’s still a crowded outfield picture with Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu (plus Masataka Yoshida, signed for two more years, as a DH option). It played itself out this season as Abreu and Anthony both missed time with injuries, while Rafaela played some infield. But Rafaela is such a wizard in center field, you’d like to keep him there. Throw in Mayer and Kristian Campbell, and the Red Sox have a deep group of young players who could be used to acquire pitching help. Craig Breslow refrained from trading anyone at the deadline, but let’s see what he does this offseason.
Offseason prediction: I think the Red Sox will play it safe and bring back a similar roster, starting with re-signing Bregman. They could then slide Mayer to second base. That still would leave four outfielders plus Campbell, who started the season with a lot of helium after making the Opening Day roster, but his defense at second wasn’t good, and he didn’t rip up Triple-A after getting sent down. If anyone is the odd man out, it’s probably him, so he’s the one most likely to get traded. Bringing back Giolito — assuming he’s healthy after missing the postseason with an elbow injury — also makes sense, as he wouldn’t break the bank but would fill a need. If he’s deemed too risky, a veteran such as Merrill Kelly or, if the Red Sox want to spend bigger, Framber Valdez or Shane Bieber, makes sense. — Schoenfield
