We’re just about a week away from the start of the 2025 MLB playoffs, and that means this year’s top contenders are lining up their rotations with hopes of making a deep October run.
With that in mind, we decided to rank the starting pitching options for the teams currently in the playoff field with an eye for how they will be used in the postseason.
These rankings are weighted based on how often a team is likely to use its pitchers in a seven-game series. That means the No. 1 and No. 2 starters get much more impact than the others since the playoffs are often about riding your best pitchers and then figuring out the rest as you go.
I ranked 14 teams in light of the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds making late charges for playoff spots, so two of the teams listed below won’t qualify for the postseason.
Tier 1
The candidates: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, Emmet Sheehan
Remember when a bunch of people were already talking about Yamamoto being a bust when he lasted one inning in his first big league start and registered a 4.50 ERA through his first five starts last season? Since then, his ERA (and every ERA estimator) has been under 3.00, driven by above average strikeout, walk and ground ball rates. He is seventh in baseball in pitcher WAR this season and is in the mix for being named an ace and receiving Cy Young votes. He’s a big reason the Dodgers are in the top spot.
To that point, Yamamoto has thrown 60 more innings than any other Dodgers starter this season, so the rest of the rotation isn’t crystal clear — but there’s a ton of talent. You’d have to think Glasnow and Snell would be in the top four with Kershaw as the likely fourth option and Ohtani and Sheehan available in a variety of roles depending on how the series goes.
Roki Sasaki is very unlikely to start a playoff game, but I’m mentioning him here because in his last Triple-A start, he appeared to have figured something out mechanically (his velo is up: 2.3 mph from his MLB starts) that continued in a relief appearance Thursday night. Combining that with his slider shape (he’s throwing it much harder: 90.7 vs. 82.0 average in MLB), he could be a multi-inning relief option alongside Justin Wrobleski.
The candidates: Christopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker
On the other hand, the Phillies have a pretty clear top four. They have six starters with at least 80 innings pitched, but Zack Wheeler is out for the season. Sanchez, Suarez and Luzardo have all been good enough this year to be the top starter for half of the teams on this list. Nola is much easier to turn to in a playoff game (despite his homer issues this season) because of his long track record, better finish to the season and strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Per FanGraphs, the Phillies and Dodgers have two of the top three odds of winning the World Series, despite neither being the top seed in the NL, in large part because of the strength of having the top two rotations in baseball.
The candidates: Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller
This is the end of Tier 1 in my opinion, as these three teams have separated a bit from the pack.
The Mariners could be higher within this tier if Kirby and Miller hadn’t both regressed this season. On the other hand, Gilbert and Woo continue to improve and are among the top handful of pitchers I evaluated for this exercise.
Gilbert is especially interesting, as his strikeout rate has spiked this season even though his fastball velocity slipped 1.2 mph and he also threw his heater more often. There isn’t a blinking red light to explain how this happened, just a handful of subtle adjustments (fastball location, splitter shape and splitter locations seem like the most notable) that seemed to have maximized his outcomes given his unique traits and adjustability.
Tier 2
The candidates: Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Charlie Morton, Troy Melton, Keider Montero
The two teams in this tier have very different types of rotations — Detroit is top-heavy, led by Skubal, while Milwaukee is well-rounded top to bottom — but both end up in about the same place in the end.
No. 2 starter Flaherty hasn’t performed that well in the playoffs (five starts, 7.36 ERA, at least 5.00 ERA estimators in the 2024 playoffs with the Dodgers) and has below-average velocity. The Tigers also have some intriguing options after their top three, as I’d argue Melton may be a better on-paper option than Morton to be the fourth starter, but it appears the veteran will get that spot while the rookie will stay in a setup role.
Overall, leaning hard on Skubal and then playing matchups and riding the hot hand seems to be the best way to work around the limitations.
The candidates: Freddy Peralta, Jacob Misiorowski, Brandon Woodruff, Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, Jose Quintana
You could argue any of the first three names listed is the best option to start Game 1 for Milwaukee right now, but Peralta is the likely answer because Misiorowski is a rookie with some unlucky outcomes thus far (5.50 second half ERA**) and Woodruff is 12 starts removed from missing all of 2024 because of shoulder surgery.
That said, all three have been excellent this year, along with the long-awaited breakout of longtime top prospect Priester. Henderson (currently injured) and Patrick are excellent long-relief options who can also start, if needed.
This is a microcosm of the Brewers organization: not the most talented by almost any measure but always optimized and outpunching the payroll, possibly by a lot.
Tier 3
The candidates: Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Chase Burns, Zack Littell, Nick Martinez
The Reds are sneaking up on the other NL wild-card hopefuls and their rotation has also snuck up on the league. Greene has long been hailed as a potential ace and has been one of the better starters in baseball over the past two years. Abbott and Lodolo don’t get a ton of national press but have both grown into dependable, solid mid-rotation options that a number of playoff teams wish they had. Choosing between those three strong pitchers who have posted solid seasons compared to the Astros group that follows with two standouts at the top of the rotation and a hot-and-cold third option is a matter of preference, especially given the playoff pedigree of Houston’s arms.
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The Reds get the nod here because, if they don’t opt for safety with Singer (the most likely option), Littell, or possibly Martinez as the fourth starter, they could opt for Burns. He returned from the IL two weeks ago, working only in relief with somewhat mixed results. However, if he can regain the form he showed until that elbow injury (15 strikeouts per 9 innings, 2.35 xFIP over 34.1 innings in 8 starts) while sitting 96-100 mph and mixing in one of the best sliders on Earth, Burns could be the x-factor of the whole playoffs. I could see Burns asserting himself as a frontline starter on the biggest stage, or being a (warning: I’m old) K-Rod-level relief sensation.
The candidates: Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, AJ Blubaugh, Jason Alexander
You could argue for the Astros to scoot up into the second tier on the strength of having two of the better starters in the sport with both being proven playoff performers.
Brown and Valdez could start on short rest and that may be the best strategy to avoid the fourth starter role and hope Javier’s strong underlying numbers through seven starts this season can hold up in the postseason.
Leaning into the fifth-best bullpen in baseball (by WAR**) is probably the right move, but that might not hold for an entire postseason run and also is an indictment of the rotation at some level, so the Astros lead off the third tier instead of joining the one above.
The candidates: Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Yu Darvish, Randy Vasquez, Kyle Hart, Nestor Cortes
San Diego has four strong veteran starters but has had some trouble having them all healthy and performing at the same time this year, with Pivetta the one constant, outperforming solid underlying metrics all year.
King was good early, then was hurt twice and hasn’t been very good in the second half. Cease has been solid all year but has underperformed his underlying metrics. Vasquez has been pretty good in the second half but had almost the same amount of walks as strikeouts in the first half. Darvish missed the first half then has also had an ERA well worse than his underlying metrics.
If King can get right for the playoffs and Cease/Darvish can have their outcomes match their underlying metrics, this ranking will look silly; the pieces are here to prove me wrong.
The candidates: Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Connelly Early, Lucas Giolito, Dustin May, Payton Tolle, Kyle Harrison
Similar to the Tigers, there’s a clear ace here who is among the best pitchers in the game, and then a collection of interesting pitchers I don’t have a ton of confidence in performing late into a playoff run.
Crochet is very clearly the kind of arm Boston needs to start three times in a seven-game series. Bello has outpitched his underlying metrics all year but also doesn’t get the amount of swing-and-miss I’d like to see to remain confident that he can continue to do that when the heat gets turned up. Early has continually beat my expectations, including when I thought Tolle was the better of the two Red Sox prospect lefties with a chance to be called up.
I think starting those three and deploying the other bulk-inning options listed above in a bullpen day (instead of a conventional fourth starter) and/or long relief to take advantage of matchups is likely the best option. Tolle’s fastball-heavy approach especially would benefit from shorter outings, particularly if he can locate the pitch like he did in the minor leagues.
The candidates: Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, Michael Soroka, Aaron Civale, Colin Rea
The Cubs have five or six viable options, but they don’t get extra credit for that at a time when you need only four and ideally have a clear ace at the top, which they don’t.
Horton has really come on in the second half while Boyd has faded a bit, and Imanaga has continued to be solid, but not spectacular. I think Soroka might be the best option for the fourth spot, but whomever Chicago ends up slotting likely has a short leash.
If Horton can keep this momentum up in the playoffs and Boyd and Imanaga can go five solid innings each time out, this can be a strong group that belongs closer to the top of this tier.
The candidates: Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil, Will Warren
I’m sure some people are surprised to see the Yankees this low with two big-money lefty starters backed up by three intriguing young right-handers. You could argue the Bombers should be a spot or two higher. If Gerrit Cole were healthy, the Yankees would go as high as fourth, at the top of the second tier, but their depth takes a hit without the ace.
Fried and Rodon have some mixed outcomes in their postseason history, though their underlying performance is pretty consistent with the regular season. Schlittler has only made a dozen big league starts and Gil has made nine starts this season with two career playoff appearances and a 6.75 career playoff ERA. All that to say that there’s a distinct downside risk here and the bullpen is a strength, so the relievers could get a lot of work.
It’s imperative that Fried and Rodon post to give the Yankees a chance to make a deep run and their 2025 regular season performance gives you some hope that could be a reality.
Tier 4
The candidates: Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Trey Yesavage, Jose Berrios
This last tier is more a commentary on whether there’s a true ace present that can carry the team than anything else.
The top four names here are solid big league starters and happen to include a Hall of Famer/playoff performer in Scherzer along with several veterans with playoff experience.
Yesavage is no slouch, as a rookie who has been confounding pro hitters all year with the deception created by his unique arm slot and movement profile, but I’m guessing he will be an intriguing multi-inning relief arm rather than pushing one of those four out of the top four slots.
Bieber is the other wild card of sorts here. He has made just five big league outings post elbow surgery (and the Jays traded a top 100 arm for likely just the stretch run and playoffs this year). The components are here for Bieber to go back to looking like a front-line starter if he can avoid hard contact a little better than he has so far, and that would raise the ceiling of this rotation.
The candidates: Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Brandon Sproat, Jonah Tong, Sean Manaea
The Mets are pretty clearly last in this exercise, as there is not a clear, proven front-line starter on the staff but instead a handful of pretty reliable veterans and some intriguing yet unproven prospects.
Let’s start with the young starters: McLean has been excellent since debuting in August, literally better than he had been at any stop of the minor leagues — but it’s also been six starts and, as mentioned, he hasn’t really done this before. Tong has been hot and cold in the big leagues after dominating in the minors and seems, for this postseason, to be a higher variance mid-rotation type or a strong multi-inning relief option, similar to Yesavage with the Jays. And Sproat seems likely to be in the bullpen with multi-inning ability since he has made only two big league starts, would sit in the upper 90s in that role and his Triple-A numbers were just OK this season.
Of the remaining veterans, Peterson is a lower variance mid-rotation type who should be the Game 1 or Game 2 starter alongside McLean. Then you could go a number of directions with Holmes and Manaea.
Holmes has blown past his career high in innings, so moving to the pen might be the right long-term workload choice and would put him in a role he’s familiar with. Manaea missed the first half of the season and seems like the right option to be the third starter, with Tong or Holmes or a bullpen day combination of these potential starters in Game 4.
If McLean and Tong both start and excel, the Mets’ rotation would become competitive with the couple of teams just ahead of them on this list.
The candidates: Tanner Bibee, Parker Messick, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi
The late-charging Guardians’ rotation is comparable to the Mets’, but Cleveland’s late-season call-up standout rookie starter (Messick) doesn’t have the raw stuff of New York’s (McLean), so I’m a little more dubious about Messick’s postseason success this season. I think Messick will continue to be solid, but his long-term outlook is more of a third/fourth starter.
Bibee is the clear top option but has underperformed his xERA by three-quarters of a run, doesn’t throw that hard and has a solid-not-spectacular strikeout rate, so he profiles more as a midrotation, steady option than a difference-making ace. Williams is slightly different and has a more impressive visual scouting report with bigger velocity and raw stuff but less command. He has a solid ERA, but his ERA estimators are all a run worse, so he’s a higher variance bet in the playoffs.
While I’m not inspired by the last three options, Cantillo — another touch-and-feel lefty somewhat like Messick — has been the best of the group in the second half, so he’s probably the leader for the last spot, but it could come as part of a game four with a number of pitchers appearing.
