Those who closely track the college coaching carousel recognize that there are rarely two light cycles in a row.
After a quiet 2024 (other than Bill Belichick’s stunning arrival at
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Eli Lederman: Similar to the Gators’ current roster, eyes — including those of the program’s recruiting rivals across the country — would quickly turn to Florida’s 11th-ranked 2026 class if Napier exits between now and national signing day.
The headliner atop his incoming class is five-star defensive end JaReylan McCoy, ESPN’s No. 9 overall recruit in the 2026 cycle. Mississippi’s top-ranked prospect held heavy interest from LSU and Texas before he committed to Florida in June, and McCoy would have no shortage of non-Florida, late-cycle suitors. The same goes for four-star rusher Davian Groce; ESPN’s No. 4 running back was a priority target for Oklahoma, Houston and Baylor when he landed in Napier’s 2026 class last month.
ESPN 300 pledges, including defensive end Kevin Ford Jr. (No. 148 overall), running back Carsyn Baker (No. 173) and pass catchers Marquez Daniel (No. 227) and Justin Williams (No. 287), would also emerge among the other high-profile flip candidates. And though longtime quarterback pledge and Florida legacy Will Griffin has repeatedly affirmed his commitment to the Gators this year, a fall coaching change could potentially open the door, particularly if a QB-needy blue blood gets involved late in the cycle.
Who are coaching candidates to watch?
Schlabach: If Florida makes a move, it’s going to be the most coveted job on the market because of its tradition, recruiting base and financial resources in the SEC. Florida AD Scott Stricklin got a three-year contract extension, and he’ll need to get this hire right. He could swing for the fences for Oregon’s Dan Lanning, but I’m guessing it would be difficult to lure him from Nike founder Phil Knight’s checkbook.
Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin would be close to the top of the list given his success with quarterbacks and offenses. Kiffin has matured since his days as an offensive coordinator under Nick Saban at Alabama, and he has built a solid program at Ole Miss, where he has a 46-18 record in his sixth season. Kiffin knows the SEC and can recruit well in Florida.
Washington‘s Jedd Fisch might seem like an outsider, given his West Coast coaching roots, but he attended Florida and was a graduate assistant under Steve Spurrier in 1999-2000. Fisch’s overall record as a head coach is 25-29, but that mark is deceiving because he inherited such a bad program at Arizona. After going 1-11 in his first season in 2021, he guided the Wildcats to a 10-3 season in 2023. Quarterback Noah Fifita was the Pac-12 Freshman of the Year that season.
Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz might be another possibility. Drinkwitz, 42, has guided the Tigers to a 40-24 record in five-plus seasons. After so-so campaigns in his first three seasons, Missouri has won 10 games or more in each of the past two. He was named SEC Coach of the Year in 2023 after the Tigers went 11-2 and defeated Ohio State 14-3 in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. Missouri is back in the AP Top 25 after beating Kansas 42-31 last week.
South Florida’s Alex Golesh, Kansas’ Lance Leipold and Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann might be on the short list as well.
Rittenberg: Kiffin and Drinkwitz certainly make the most sense from within the SEC, as both have some Spurrier in them and fit the offense-centric approach that Florida covets from its coaches. I’ll throw out another big name: Penn State coach James Franklin. A lot depends on how a championship-or-bust 2025 season goes, and Franklin certainly could continue at PSU, especially since he has the infrastructure and support that he coveted earlier in his time there. But coaches also talk about restarting their clocks, and after 12 seasons at Penn State, a change might make sense for him. Franklin has a home in Florida and has spent a lot of time in the state over the years.
If South Florida keeps rolling, Golesh will be one of the top coaches on the market for Power 4 openings. He’s a pedal-down recruiter who has varied experience in key areas of the country, including the SEC (Tennessee), Big Ten (Illinois) and Big 12 (Iowa State). There could be more openings in the SEC than those other conferences, and Golesh has worked in the state of Florida both as an offensive coordinator (UCF) and now a head coach.
Tulane’s Jon Sumrall is still the top candidate from a non-Power 4 school. I’d be a bit surprised if he’s not leading an SEC program in 2026 or shortly after. Sumrall is an Alabama native who played linebacker at Kentucky and coached both at his alma mater and at Ole Miss in 2018. He will be the top name mentioned whenever the Mark Stoops era ends at Kentucky, but his return is far from a guarantee. Sumrall could look to other SEC jobs where making the CFP seems a bit more realistic.
Schlabach brought up Leipold, who is a fascinating candidate to examine. The 61-year-old could finish his career at Kansas, which opened its renovated stadium last month and is supporting the program unlike ever before. He also could make one big move. If he does, I see him ending up back in the Big Ten, especially if a job like Wisconsin opens. Leipold is from the state and spent three years as a Wisconsin graduate assistant early in coach Barry Alvarez’s run there.
Want one more? Sure you do. Let’s see how the season plays out at UNLV, but Dan Mullen is off to a 3-0 start in his return to the sideline, highlighted by last week’s win over UCLA. Mullen came to UNLV with a career record of 103-61, all in the SEC at Mississippi State and Florida. Schools seeking Power 4 experience could look at Mullen, who is only 53 and seems revived after spending three years away from coaching.
