The US solar industry put nearly 18 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity on the grid in the first half of 2025. Even as the Trump administration rolled out anti-clean energy policies, solar and storage still made up 82% of all new power added to the grid in the first six months of the year. But the growth picture isn’t as sunny as it looks, according to the SEIA.
Trump’s big bill (HR1) and new administration actions targeting solar have dragged down deployment forecasts. The latest US Solar Market Insight Q3 2025 report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie warns that these policies could cut 44 GW of US solar growth by 2030 – an 18% decline. Compared with pre-HR1 forecasts, that’s a total loss of 55 GW, or 21% fewer solar projects by 2030.
“Solar and storage are the backbone of America’s energy future, delivering the majority of new power to the grid at the lowest cost to families and businesses,” said SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. She added that the administration is “deliberately stifling investment, which is raising energy costs for families and businesses, and jeopardizing the reliability of our electric grid.” Still, Hopper stressed that demand will keep the industry growing because “the market is demanding what we’re delivering: reliable, affordable, American-made energy.”
Ironically, the report found that this year, 77% of new solar capacity has been built in states Trump won. Eight of the top 10 states for new installations — Texas, Indiana, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky, and Arkansas — all went red in 2024.
On the manufacturing side, the US added 13 GW of new solar module capacity in the first half of the year, with factories ramping up in Texas, Indiana, and Minnesota. That brings total domestic capacity to 55 GW. But momentum stalled in Q2, with no new upstream manufacturing investment as federal policy uncertainty spooked private capital.
Looking ahead, SEIA and Wood Mackenzie expect solar deployment to land 4% lower than pre-HR1 projections by 2030. Near-term solar growth is buoyed by projects already underway, developers racing against tax credit deadlines, and surging electricity demand as new gas generation becomes pricier and less reliable.
The report also highlights the risk of federal permitting changes. A Department of the Interior order throws up obstructions for solar permits, threatening about 44 GW of planned projects. Arizona, California, and Nevada are expected to be hit hardest.
“There is considerable downside risk for the solar industry if the federal permitting environment creates more constraints for solar projects,” said Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie. “The solar industry is already navigating dramatic policy changes as a result of HR1. Further uncertainty from federal policy actions is making the business environment incredibly challenging.”
SEIA has urged Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to reverse course, warning that the administration’s approach could mean lost jobs, higher power bills, and a weaker US economy.
The stakes stretch beyond energy: SEIA notes that if solar growth stalls as projected, the Trump administration will blow its chances at winning the global AI race – something it’s keen to do. Last week, the trade group rolled out a grid reliability policy agenda calling on leaders at all levels of government to shore up the grid with solar and storage to meet surging demand.
Read more: FERC: Solar + wind made up 91% of new US power generating capacity in H1 2025
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