Solar and wind accounted for almost 91% of new US electrical generating capacity added in the first five months of 2025, according to data released on August 20* by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).
Solar’s new generating capacity in May 2025 and YTD
In its latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with data through May 31, 2025) reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign, FERC says 43 “units” of solar totaling 1,515 megawatts (MW) were placed into service in May, accounting for 58.7% of all new generating capacity added during the month.
The 11,518 MW of solar added during the first five months of 2025 was 75.3% of the total new capacity placed into service.
Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity added each month for 21 consecutive months, starting September 2023.
Solar + wind were nearly 91% of new capacity through May
Between January and May, new wind provided 2,379 MW of capacity additions, accounting for 15.6% of all new capacity added during the first five months of 2025.
For the first five months of 2025, solar and wind comprised 90.9% of new capacity while natural gas (1,381 MW) provided just 9.0%; the remaining 0.1% came from oil (14 MW).
Solar + wind are 22.9% of US utility-scale generating capacity
The installed capacities of solar (11.1%) and wind (11.8%) are now each more than a tenth of the US total. Taken together, they constitute 22.9% of the US’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity.
At least 25-30% of US solar capacity is in the form of small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that are not reflected in FERC’s data. Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar + wind to more than a quarter of the US total.
With the inclusion of hydropower (7.7%), biomass (1.1%), and geothermal (0.3%), renewables currently claim a 32.0% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity. If small-scale solar capacity is included, renewables are now about one-third of total US generating capacity.
Solar is on track to become No. 2 source of US generating capacity
FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between June 2025 and May 2028 total 89,513 MW – an amount almost four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (23,019 MW), the second fastest growing resource.
FERC also foresees net growth for hydropower (596 MW) and geothermal (92 MW) but a decrease of 123 MW in biomass capacity.
Taken together, the net new “high probability” capacity additions by all renewable energy sources over the next three years – the bulk of the Trump Administration’s remaining time in office – would total 113,097 MW.
There is no new nuclear capacity in FERC’s three-year forecast, while coal and oil are projected to contract by 24,913 MW and 1,907 MW, respectively. Natural gas capacity would expand by 5,992 MW.
Thus, adjusting for the different capacity factors of gas (59.7%), wind (34.3%), and utility-scale solar (23.4%), electricity generated by the projected new solar capacity to be added in the coming three years should be nearly six times greater than that produced by the new natural gas capacity while the electrical output by new wind capacity would be more than double that by gas.
If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialize by May 1, 2028, solar will account for 16.7% of US installed utility-scale generating capacity. Wind would provide an additional 12.7% of the total. Thus, each would be greater than coal (12.2%) and substantially more than nuclear power or hydropower (each 7.2%).
In fact, assuming current growth rates continue, the installed capacity of utility-scale solar is likely to surpass that of either coal or wind within two years, putting solar in the No. 2 spot for installed generating capacity, behind natural gas.
Renewables may overtake natural gas within 3 years
All utility-scale (i.e., >1 MW) renewables is now adding about two percentage points each year to its share of generating capacity. At that pace, by June 1, 2028, renewables would account for 37.8% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity, rapidly approaching that of natural gas (40.2%). Solar and wind would constitute more than three-quarters of the installed capacity of renewable sources. If those trendlines continue, utility-scale renewable energy capacity should surpass that of natural gas in 2029 or sooner.
However, as noted, FERC’s data do not account for the capacity of small-scale solar systems. If that is factored in, within three years, total US solar capacity should exceed 300 GW. In turn, the mix of all renewables would be about 40% of total installed capacity, while natural gas’s share would drop to about 38%.
Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 226,821 MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 67,405 MW of new wind, 9,064 MW of new hydropower, 202 MW of new geothermal, and 34 MW of new biomass. By contrast, the net new natural gas capacity in the three-year pipeline potentially totals just 28,797 MW. Consequently, renewables’ share could be even greater by late spring 2028.
Renewables increase and fossil fuels shrink
At the end of 2024, the mix of all renewables accounted for 30.96% of total generating capacity. Solar alone was 10.19% while wind was 11.68%. By the end of May, renewables’ share had risen to 31.98% with solar at 11.13% and wind at 11.80%.
On the other hand, natural gas’s share had slipped from 43.00% to 42.52%, coal fell from 15.30% to 14.89%, and oil dropped from 2.73% to 2.72%. Similarly, nuclear power’s share of generating capacity decreased from 7.84% to 7.74%.
“FERC’s latest data predate enactment of the Trump Administration’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill,’ which may adversely affect the future growth trajectories of wind and solar,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “However, FERC’s forecasts suggest that cleaner and lower-cost renewable energy sources will continue to grow, retaining their lead over coal and nuclear power while closing the gap with natural gas.”
*This data was released by FERC over a month late.
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