The future of the UK economy is weaker and more uncertain due to President Trump’s tariffs and conflict in the Middle East, the Bank of England has said.
“The outlook for UK growth over the coming year is a little weaker and more uncertain,” the central bank said in its biannual health check of the UK’s financial system.
Economic and financial risks have increased since the last report was published in November, as global unpredictability continued after the announcement of country-specific tariffs on 2 April, the Bank’s Financial Stability Report said.
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These risks and uncertainty, as well as geopolitical tensions, like the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, are “particularly relevant” to UK financial stability as an open economy with a large financial sector, it said.
Pressures on government borrowing costs are “still elevated” amid significant doubts over the global economic outlook.
Had a 90-day pause on tariffs not been announced, conditions could have worsened, the report added.
The chance of prices rising overall has also grown as tensions between Iran and Israel and the US threaten to push up energy prices.
Possible higher inflation in turn raises the prospect of more expensive borrowing from higher interest rates to bring down those price rises. This compounds the pressure on state borrowing costs.
Mortgages
Borrowing costs for about 40% of mortgage holders are set to become costlier over the next three years as households refix to more expensive deals, affecting 3.6 million households, the Bank said.
Many homes have not refixed their mortgage since interest rates began to rise in 2021, meaning the full impact of higher rates has yet to filter through.
Those looking to get on the property ladder got a boost as the Bank said lenders could issue more loans deemed to be risky, meaning people could be able to borrow more.
Financial institutions can now have 15% of their new mortgages deemed risky every year, up from the current 9.7%.
Riskier mortgages are those with a loan value above 4.5 times the borrower’s income.
Be ‘prepared for shocks’
Despite the global and domestic economy concerns, the outlook for UK household and business resilience remained “strong”, the Bank said.
Investors, however, were warned that there could be “sharp falls in risky asset prices”, which include shares and currencies.
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If there are any vulnerabilities in non-bank lenders, it “could amplify such moves, potentially affecting the availability and cost of credit in the UK”.
“It is important that in their risk management, market participants [people involved in investing] are prepared for such shocks.”
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The steep market reaction following the tariff announcements in April “highlights that the interconnectedness of global financial markets can mean stress from one market can move quickly to others,” the report said.
Overall, though, “household and corporate borrowers remain resilient”, the Bank concluded.
