During the 2024 season, the
1 Related
Even on the road, the Yankees are laying -300 on the moneyline and even a very rare -3.5 run line on Friday night, according to ESPN BET lines. Avello notes his book is routinely rising above the standard -1.5 run line given how poor this Rockies team has been. By DraftKings spreads, Colorado is an MLB-worst 16-34 against the run line, even after being underdogs in every single game.
Given the long moneylines, bettors are starting to get creative with how they fade the Rockies. Coors Field has long been a notorious hitter’s park due to Denver’s altitude, making it a clear target for overs on the total. However, with the 2025 Rockies being very lackluster on both sides of the ball, bettors are looking at lots of runs for just the away team.
“The people recognize, ‘Hey, the Rockies aren’t scoring much, the opposing team is,’ so they’re betting the Rockies team total under and the opponent over,” said Biggio. “It’s not rocket science, but it is turning into a kind of big decision on top of the normal markets for baseball.”
This really came to a head on May 10, when the San Diego Padres came to town and defeated Colorado by a ridiculous score of 21-0. Biggio says that the next day, bettors flooded the market, backing the Padres on the moneyline, run line and team total.
However, then something remarkable happened: The Rockies won 9-3, their seventh win of the season. Biggio says it was a huge win for the book, equivalent to an “NFL Sunday kind of decision.”
“Teams playing the Rockies are regularly among the most-bet MLB teams of the day on both the moneyline and run line, so the rare Rockies win is something of a bright spot,” ESPN BET director of North American sports trading Adrian Horton said over email. “However, those wins don’t outweigh the good days for bettors taking whoever is playing against Colorado.”
Barring a huge turnaround for Colorado, the books are likely making some money back on season win total. Before the campaign, sportsbooks set the Rockies’ win total at a consensus 59.5. That’s low, but notably higher than the White Sox’ historically low 53.5. Caesars and DraftKings both report that a majority of money was on the over, citing preseason optimism and general bettor behavior that gravitates to the over.
Since then, books have been consistently dropping that total throughout the season, and it currently stands at 39.5 headed into the weekend series with the Yankees. Biggio says it’s the lowest in-season win total he’s ever seen.
During the current monster stretch of the Rockies’ schedule, sportsbooks aren’t likely to get much respite from the beatings they’re taking on a daily basis. However, there is possibly some relief on the horizon. Following this tough section, Colorado gets the NL East bottom-dwelling Miami Marlins and, for July 4th weekend, the Rockies will take on the White Sox in what has to be one of the most strangely anticipated matchups of the season.
“These prices are already out of control as far as what you have to lay to win to win a dollar, so that won’t stop betters from either betting [their opponents] straight or parlaying them,” said Avello. “We have to just weather this storm, though. We can adjust prices, but we just have to wait for a time when maybe they get on track a little bit and win a few games.”
