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Sean Allen
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With the favored team by the oddsmakers actually being the road team for Game 1, there’s an opportunity to let the Leafs have their home-game advantage, but take the Panthers in the long run with enhanced odds. The Maple Leafs to win Game 1 and lose the series checks in at +300 as opposed to the -175 odds for just taking the Panthers to win the series. And if that’s the belief, it’s arguably worth taking on a series spread take, as Panthers -1.5 series spread pushes the payout to +110 so long as they take care of business in six games or fewer.
That said, I’ve got to stick to my guns in taking the Leafs to go all the way this season, so I’m leaning the other way with the Maple Leafs to win Game 1 and win the series (+230). It feels like this Leafs team has a strong tailwind headed into Round 2.
On the player front, Carter Verhaeghe has been a “Leafs killer” going back to when the Cats dispatched the Leafs in the 2023 playoffs (three goals in five games). In the regular-season series, Verhaeghe posted two goals and four points in four games, and also managed an astronomical 25 total shot attempts (seven shots on goal, five missed shots and 13 shot attempts blocked). He has pretty long odds in a lot of the player categories — most goals in series (+1000), most shots on goal in series (+1000) and score a hat trick in any game (+1100) — that dovetail with his history against Toronto.
If the Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Auston Matthews has the best odds at 18-1, with Mitch Marner moving from 50-1 before the first round to 25-1 heading into Round 2, but William Nylander (60-1) leads the team in goals and points so far. All that aside, it’s Anthony Stolarz (20-1) who has led this Leafs team into Round 2 with timely goaltending.
If the Panthers win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Four of the 20 best bets for Conn Smythe are Panthers, just like prior to Round 1. But I’d bypass Sergei Bobrovsky (16-1), Aleksander Barkov (18-1) and Matthew Tkachuk (18-1) to look at No. 4 on the list. Sam Reinhart (25-1) leads the team in points and leads the forwards in ice time per game by a full two and a half minutes.
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