Betting the 151st Kentucky Derby: What you need to know to make a smart race wager

The Kentucky Derby offers one of the most unique betting opportunities in the sport.

One reason: The race is 1 ¼ miles long and has up to 20 horses in the field. Because all of the horses are 3 years old, none have raced that distance yet. Combine that with a crowd of more than 100,000 in attendance at Churchill Downs, and the unexpected happens.

Rich Strike was a last-minute addition to the field in 2022 due to scratches and won at 80-1 odds, paying $163.60 dollars to win on a $2 bet. Mystik Dan, an 18-1 shot, held on to win last year, while favored Fierceness finished 12th. Mystik Dan paid $39.22 to win on $2.

Essentially, it’s the one of the few races that draws attention from casual racing fans and the general public instead of only year-round fans. It’s the kind of race where bets based on the color of a horse are just as likely to be made as bets informed by weeks of handicapping.

To put it in numerical terms: When Mystik Dan came in third place in the Arkansas Derby last year to punch his ticket to Churchill Downs, the total “Win/Place/Show” pool — the amount of money placed on that type of bet at Oaklawn Park — was $2.4 million.

When he won the Kentucky Derby, the “Win/Place/Show” pool was $104 million.

That means there could be some big payouts, especially if Journalism, who is expected to be heavily favored going into this race, finishes off the board.

Here’s what you need to know.

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Katherine Terrell

Bob Baffert is back after three-year ban

Trainer Bob Baffert — who has won six runnings of the Kentucky Derby (including Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify) — was banned by Churchill Downs Inc. for three years and was recently reinstated. This came after his trainee Medina Spirit was disqualified from a win in the 2021 Derby due to a failed drug test. Medina Spirit died of a heart attack during a workout later that year.

Baffert has two horses in the race this year: Citizen Bull, who drew the rail (No. 1 post) and will be ridden by jockey Martin Garcia, and Rodriguez, who will break from the No. 4 post and will be ridden by Mike Smith. Expect both horses to be near the front and set the pace.

Smith, 59, could become the oldest jockey to win the Kentucky Derby, surpassing Bill Shoemaker, who was 54 when he won with Ferdinand in 1986. Smith has won the Kentucky Derby twice, including for Baffert on Justify in 2018.

Japanese Derby contenders have been making a push

Japan-based horses have become serious contenders in the past few years. Entry in the Kentucky Derby is based on points earned in prep races in the lead-up to the event.

A “Japan Road” to the Kentucky Derby was established in 2017, and horses shipped in from those races have improved every year. Japan-based Forever Young came in third in the Kentucky Derby last year, less than a length behind Mystik Dan.

The two Japanese contenders this year are Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe. Luxor Cafe, the son of American Pharoah, has won four straight races and is coming off an impressive five-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes in Japan on March 29.

Luxor Cafe will be making his North American debut, so it’s uncertain how he’ll handle the Churchill Downs surface, but he has certainly shown talent.

He has raced four times on a wet track — something to watch if it rains on Derby Day.

A race for the…old guys?

While Smith has a chance to make history as the oldest jockey, the field has plenty of seasoned trainers, too.

The oldest trainer to win the Kentucky Derby was Art Sherman, who was 77 when he won with California Chrome in 2014. Charlie Whittingham won with Sunday Silence in 1989 at age 76.

Lonnie Briley, a 72-year-old trainer from Louisiana, might have the most interesting story. Briley never had a graded stakes winner until he purchased Coal Battle for $70,000 in 2023. Coal Battle won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, but he will be a longshot in this race. Jockey Juan Vargas and owner Robbie Norman also are participating in their first Derby.

There’s also Baffert, who is 72, and Bill Mott, 71, who won the 2019 Kentucky Derby after Country House placed first following Maximum Security’s disqualification. Mott recently said that Sovereignty represents his “best chance” at crossing the wire first.

Don’t rule out John Shirreffs either, who is looking for his first Derby win since longshot Giacomo won at 50-1 odds in 2005, just before Shirreffs’ 60th birthday. Shirreffs — famous for training Hall of Fame mare Zenyatta — is hoping to get Baeza into the race, but he will only draw into the field if there’s a scratch.

None of that compares to D. Wayne Lukas, who has won the Derby four times, the Belmont Stakes four times and the Preakness Stakes seven times (most recently last year). He will enter American Promise this year and turn 90 in September.