European leaders are now talking about peace in Ukraine rather than war

The war in Ukraine has ground on for nearly three years. From the start, Western allies have stood in solidarity with Kyiv.

The US has poured tens of billions in military aid into the war, while leaders across Europe have vowed to stand with Volodymyr Zelenskyy for as long as it takes to defeat Vladimir Putin on the battlefield.

But on Thursday, as Sir Keir Starmer stood shoulder-to-shoulder with President Zelenskyy at the remembrance wall for fallen soldiers and then side-by-side with the Ukrainian president at a joint press briefing, the changing reality of Donald Trump’s return to the White House in just five days was laid bare.

Even as a Russian drone hovered above the presidential palace – only to be blasted down by anti-aircraft guns – the significant development of this trip was that these leaders were not talking about war, but about peace.

For President Zelenskyy, the frustration was palpable.

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This is a leader who has fought with all he has and asked his fellow men and women to do the same for three long years. Now what is coming is a peace negotiation that he may not want and may struggle to control.

He told reporters that Russia’s gains along Ukraine’s eastern flank had happened because Kyiv had received weapons too slowly, in a not-very veiled swipe at President Joe Biden’s prevarication on providing the long-range missiles Ukraine long said it needed.

And he also – having long pressed allies for NATO membership and making those security guarantees part of this “victory plan” – bluntly told reporters at the joint press conference that the US, Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia were against Ukraine’s accession to NATO.

President Zelenskyy told his audience he needed more weapons and quickly.

However, talk of continuing the war has fully given way to securing a ceasefire, and the UK prime minister is now pitching how allies can put Ukraine in the strongest possible position to negotiate that deal.

“Peace through strength,” is the new motto you’ll be hearing over and over again.

This is simply the new reality. President-elect Trump has made it clear he wants to end this war – although he has shifted his timeframe from “24 hours” to his first 100 days.

He has also acknowledged Moscow’s long-standing opposition to Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO, given it would mean “Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I can understand their feeling about that”.

Now allies are considering what that peace deal would look like.

The prime minister told Sky News today in an exclusive interview that allies are actively discussing a European force along the borders to police the peace – all but confirming Britain would play a role.

He said: “We’ve been discussing this with a number of allies, including, of course, President Macron, including President Zelenskyy here today, and we will play our full part.

“We have always been one of the leading countries in relation to the defence of Ukraine. And so you can read into that. But we will be playing our full part.

“I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves because this has to be enduring. It has to be lasting. It needs to be sufficient to deter further aggression.”

And his message back home to those who might be worried about the prospect of British troops being part of a peacekeeping effort in a possible buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia?

“For me, as prime minister of the United Kingdom, the number one priority is the safety and security of everybody in the UK. But that safety and security starts on this front line, here in Ukraine.

“But, also, I would say this, the conflict in Ukraine has had a huge implication back at home in terms of prices, in terms of the cost of living crisis. And therefore, this isn’t something remote. It’s every day back in the UK.”

President-elect Trump has yet to outline his plan for peace, but President Zelenskyy can see the writing on the wall.

Ever since the start of the war, the Ukrainian leader has said Russia must withdraw from occupied land.

Last month, for the first time, he signalled a new approach in an interview with Sky’s Stuart Ramsay as he said he wanted NATO membership for government-controlled Ukraine and would wait to regain the rest through diplomacy.

What option does he have but to retreat when the bank-roller for this war isn’t prepared to stand in lockstep with the EU and other NATO allies?

Marco Rubio, the incoming secretary of state, has said the conflict “has to end” and “it is important for everyone to be realistic. There will have to be concessions made by the Russian Federation, but also by the Ukrainians”.

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The consensus that held over Ukraine since the start of the war is over, as president-elect Trump changes the terms of trade, be it over Ukraine, a rush to a ceasefire in Gaza, his criticism of NATO, his imperialist ambitions towards Greenland and the Panama Canal, or his threat of huge tariffs and trade wars.

Even before he has entered office it is obvious that the second term of Trump will be more consequential than the first, with profound consequences should he choose to upend a decades-long consensus between the US and her allies.

Sir Keir was right on Thursday when he said at the presidential palace that “the history of the twenty-first century is being defined now”.

The big unknown is whether the UK, Ukraine, and European allies, have any realistic hope of really helping to shape it.