Donald Trump did not send a video message to the European summit in Budapest today, as its host Viktor Orban is reported to have wanted – but his impact was felt everywhere.
UK and European leaders discussed possible US tariffs – which could have a huge economic impact – migration, and of course, Ukraine, where changes in the White House will determine the course of the war.
Messages of support were sent to Kyiv from allies. Keir Starmer, one of 42 national leaders attending, had a bilateral meeting with President Zelenskyy and reassured him of the UK’s “ironclad” support.
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European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen was more direct – saying it was in all European countries’ interests to show “the autocrats of the world that there’s not a right of might” and to defend “the integrity of countries”.
Only Orban, Trump’s chief cheerleader in Europe – who said he had toasted the election result with vodka – favours negotiations with Vladimir Putin.
Trump, who said he would solve the war “in 24 hours” if he was re-elected, is feared to be planning to pressure Zelenskyy into surrendering territory to bring the war to an end.
Whatever it takes to back Ukraine was the message from most here, but there was anxiety about whether Europe has what it takes.
EU leaders – minus the UK and others attending today – will be meeting for dinner tonight to chew over the new trans-Atlantic relationship in more detail.
The European Political Community, holding its fifth meeting, was set up in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a chance for the EU to meet wider partners such as the UK, Turkey and Caucasus nations to discuss key security challenges including conflict and irregular migration.
This one – as the enormity of the US result sank in – saw starker messages than usual about money; the need for countries to step up to spend more on defence if the US disengages from European defence.
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The new secretary general of NATO, Mark Rutte, said Trump had forced fellow members to pay their way and that he was right to do so. A total of 22 of the bloc’s 32 members are now spending 2% – double what it was two years ago.
But not all – and Sir Keir has already faced questions at home about when he’ll meet his campaign promise to spend 2.5%. Today, he said he was pleased to have announced a recent boost in the budget, but the “roadmap” to that target is still unclear.
Zelenskyy himself told reporters at the summit he believes Trump wants a quick end to war – but that doing so without first agreeing security guarantees for Ukraine is “very dangerous”.
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At the summit, Sir Keir told President Zelenskyy: “We need to step up.”
The German defence minister, who met his French counterpart within hours of Trump’s win, said ahead of the summit that the challenge from the US was clear: “They’ll be able to do less in Europe. We need to fill this gap to be more credible in terms of deterrence.”
Europe has other security concerns, including irregular migration, on which Keir Starmer is trying to galvanise joint action in order to show that his promise to reduce small boat crossings can be met.
But there was little doubt leaders are feeling the aftershocks of what could be a major shift with implications for decades.
