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Fertility rate in England and Wales falls to lowest level since records began in 1938

Fertility rate in England and Wales falls to lowest level since records began in 1938

The fertility rate in England and Wales has fallen to the lowest level since records began, according to government data.

The average total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime – was 1.44 children per woman in 2023.

It is the lowest value since records began in 1938, new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.

Some 591,072 live births were recorded – the lowest number since 1977.

A rate of 2.1 children per woman is needed on average to ensure the long-term “natural” replacement of the population, according to the ONS.

Yet the rate has been falling since 2010.

Figures for 2022 showed the average TFR had declined to 1.49 children per woman, down from 1.55 in 2021.

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Greg Ceely, head of population health monitoring at the ONS, said: “Total fertility rates declined in 2023, a trend we have seen since 2010.

“Looking in more detail at fertility rates among women of different ages, the decline in fertility rates has been the most dramatic in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups.”

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Fertility crisis: Are we leaving it too late?

This latest data follows analysis commissioned by Sky News showing the UK’s fertility rate is falling faster than any other G7 country.

Research by thinktank the Centre for Progressive Policy (CPP) discovered the fertility rate has dropped by 18.8%.

Women have increasingly had children at older ages, with only one in five women born in 1997 having a child before the age of 25 – the lowest of any earlier generation.

Not feeling ready, financial pressures and not finding the right partner are preventing millennials who want children from trying to have them, research from the UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies has found.

The cost of housing and childcare have been cited as reasons, as well as people not feeling ready to have children because other major life events are happening later.

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