Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch will battle it out to be the next leader of the Conservative Party after James Cleverly was eliminated from the race.
Tory MPs held a final vote on Wednesday to reduce the field to a final two, who will then go to a ballot of Conservative members.
After picking up 42 votes in the final round of voting, Ms Badenoch re-established herself as the favourite after lagging behind in previous rounds.
Robert Jenrick, her close rival on the right, picked up one vote shy of Ms Badenoch, while Mr Cleverly – who was seen as a unifying candidate – won the backing of 37 MPs.
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The selection of Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick means the Conservative Party is heading towards the right and that immigration – and the UK’s membership of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – will be at the top of the agenda.
Mr Jenrick said he was “delighted to have got so much support from parliamentary colleagues today”.
He told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge he believed his message of fixing the NHS, growing the economy and reducing immigration had struck a chord with MPs.
“On each of these areas, I’ve got a real plan,” he said.
“I don’t trade in platitudes. I have a plan as to how we provide serious, competent leadership for our party and ultimately for our country.”
This contest could become unpleasant quite quickly
The Conservative leadership contest is no longer a battle for the direction of the party.
By picking Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, this has pivoted from a contest about the future direction of the party to one that turns on two different visions of a Tory future on the right of British politics.
The ejection of James Cleverly – who was frontrunner just yesterday – stunned the party. Nobody has yet admitted to whether his defeat took place because of a miscalculation over vote lending.
However people saw Cleverly on the terrace and later for a time at the Boris Johnson book launch – a period the other campaign were hitting the phones to firm up support.
It is still too close to call who will win between Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick as they go through to the final round and submit themselves to the judgement of 170,000 Tory members.
However, Ms Badenoch now appears to have the edge.
The last Tory members poll for YouGov by Sky News puts her four percentage points ahead of her rival in a head to head contest – not much more than the margin of error, but this was taken before her well-received conference speech.
In the final round of voting she was suddenly out in front amongst MPs – when the suggestion had been that they might try and keep her off the ballot.
This puts to bed the suggestion that too many MPs worry that her regular incendiary and unpredictable comments bar her from the top job.
Mr Jenrick will now want this race to turn on immigration .
Team Jenrick say he wants to leave ECHR and she “wants to remain” and that his opponent wants to leave.
Team Badenoch says that misrepresents her – her more nuanced position is that she is willing to leave if necessary, but only after a review.
Other clear dividing lines are yet to emerge, however. The risk that a contest based around personalities becomes quite personal – and unpleasant – quite quickly.
It is not a contest anyone could have predicted.
Ms Badenoch said the reason she had performed the best in the final round of voting was because “people have a lot of faith in my approach”…that you start with principles first and then policy”.
Mr Cleverly’s elimination from the race came as a surprise after he rallied in the previous round of voting following what was considered to be a strong performance at the Conservative Party conference.
Kemi Badenoch has established herself as the frontrunner after lagging behind in previous rounds.
Political reporter Alix Culbertson, who was in the room as the result was announced, said “disbelief resounded around the room” after it was confirmed the former home secretary would not be in the final two.
Following the result Mr Cleverly posted on X: “I’m grateful for the support I’ve received on this campaign from colleagues, party members and the public.
“Sadly it wasn’t to be. We are all Conservatives, and it’s important the Conservative Party unites to take on this catastrophic Labour government.”
It came after Tom Tugendhat, the former security minister who was running from the centrist wing of the party, was knocked out of the race after receiving the least votes from MPs on Tuesday.
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The result marks a comeback for Ms Badenoch, who while starting as the favourite in the early stages of the contest, was later pursued by Mr Jenrick who overtook her in the first, second and third MPs’ ballot.
Both candidates faced criticism for comments they made during the party conference.
Mr Jenrick claimed the SAS was being forced to kill rather than capture terrorists because the “European Court will set them free”, something many of his colleagues disputed.
Former business secretary Ms Badenoch was forced to backtrack over comments she made about “excessive” maternity pay and civil servants being jailed.
Britain’s membership of the ECHR is likely to be at the forefront at the debate between the two frontrunners, with Mr Jenrick – who has already challenged his rival to a debate – advocating that the UK leave the convention.
Ms Badenoch’s position is that she wants a review of the ECHR and would be willing to leave it if necessary.
Asked whether the race was likely to get “dirty” and if he could guarantee a “clean contest”, Mr Jenrick told Sophy Ridge: “That’s the way I fought this campaign now for three months.
Robert Jenrick has made leaving the ECHR central to his campaign.
“I’m a collegiate person, but I also want to provide direction for this party,” he said. “We need to be more Conservative. We need to ensure that we occupy that common ground of British politics once more.”
On the issue of the ECHR, Ms Badenoch said making it the sole focus of the debate would be a mistake.
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“What I talked about in my conference speech and when I launched my campaign is we need to talk about everything,” she told reporters in Westminster.
“It can’t just be about one little part of immigration policy – we need to lower immigration, that’s part of the story, but just talking about the ECHR is going to shut down the conversation that we need to have with the entire country.”
The party membership vote will close at 5pm on Thursday 31 October. The winner, who will become leader of the party and the Opposition to the Labour government, will be announced on Saturday 2 November.
