Five things to look out for in Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's debate tonight

Tonight, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are ready to go head-to-head for the first – and likely only – time ahead of the US election.

At 2am on Wednesday, the former president and incumbent vice president will debate live on ABC News from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Polling shows the Republican and Democrat are neck-and-neck just two months out from voting, with a recent New York Times and Siena College poll putting Mr Trump ahead by one point at 48% to 47% for Ms Harris.

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Ms Harris has already arrived in the “City of Brotherly Love”, with our US partner network NBC News reporting she had spent the weekend in Pittsburgh preparing for the debate.

Meanwhile, Mr Trump has been packing out his schedule with campaign events, leaving his vice presidential nominee JD Vance to publicly bash the Democrat’s policies online.

Here are five things to look out for in the debate: You can watch live coverage from midnight tonight on Sky News on web and on mobile

Poking the bear

Team Harris talks about the value of getting under Donald Trump’s skin. “Poking the bear” would aim to unsettle a man prone to visible irritation.

“She should bait him,” said Hillary Clinton in a New York Times interview. “When I said he was a Russian puppet, he just sputtered onstage.”

Winding up Trump would be designed to discomfort him in the spotlight and craft the spectacle of an angry and ill-disciplined former president.

We saw it in the first presidential debate in 2020, where Trump was roundly criticised for repeatedly interrupting Joe Biden.

On debate stages since, he has shown he has learned the lesson, but it won’t stop Harris from inviting him to roll back the rage – if he obliges, it could diminish him and enhance her.

‘Harris owns everything’

The Trump team laid down their debate strategy in an eve-of-event news conference.

As much as Kamala Harris wants to present herself as a candidate of change, they intend to place her firmly at the heart of the Biden White House.

Trump spokesman Jason Miller told journalists that Harris was currently running the country and that she “owns everything from this administration”.

They trailed Trump’s attack lines on immigration, crime, global instability and high prices.

Their view of success is in emphasising their view of Kamala Harris as a “radical liberal”.

The moments

Millions will tune into the 90-minute debate and pore over every last detail. Millions also won’t.

For them, the event will be consumed via viral moments on a vertical screen.

There will be much strategising around the 10-second clips that fly on TikTok and Instagram, and which shape views on victory and defeat.

Think Donald Trump standing over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and glowering “you’d be in jail”, or Kamala Harris slapping down Mike Pence in 2020 with “I’m speaking”.

For all the talk of laying down policy and engaging on the politics of the presidency, there’s a heavy element of pantomime to all of this.

Stage dynamics

On stage, Harris and Trump will be coming face-to-face for the first time. They didn’t meet at the 2021 inauguration because Donald Trump didn’t attend.

The setting that has both candidates at lecterns should preclude a repeat of the way Trump stalked Hillary Clinton on stage in the 2016 debate.

However, the interaction between Trump and his female opponent will be no less interesting. This isn’t the old guy contest of Trump versus Biden, it’s more complicated than that.

Trump versus Harris puts gender at the centre of the stage dynamic. Donald Trump has a history of publicly denigrating women, including Kamala Harris.

He has been found liable for sexual abuse by a civil court. How that plays in the debate, and the mind of the viewer, will be a factor – particularly for the women voters he needs.

Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democrat who has been helping him prepare, told reporters: “President Trump respects women and doesn’t feel the need to be patronising or to speak to women in any other way than he would speak to a man.”

Success

The importance of the TV debate is well-documented. Ultimately, both candidates need to be convincingly presidential, in politics and personality – to enter and exit the stage exuding gravitas and authority.

Harris, in particular, needs to assert her presence because she is less familiar to American voters – 28% said they felt they needed to know more about her, according to a New York Times survey from earlier this week.

Familiarity was always going to be a challenge for her, with such a short run between selection and election.

She, and he, will seek to lay down policy ideas and underpin their credentials for office. How easy that will be in this political bear pit is anyone’s guess.

Experience suggests it will be a loosely structured discussion that is less of a debate and more of a political stand-up routine on both sides of the stage – played not for laughs, but for the presidency.