The SNP is closing the gap on Labour north of the border – but Scottish votes will still be a big help to Sir Keir Starmer at the ballot box, a Sky News poll suggests.
An exclusive YouGov poll for Sky News puts Labour on 35% in Scotland and the SNP on 29%.
The Scottish Nationalists are catching up with Anas Sarwar’s party, but if results on 4 July reflect the poll, it will still mean big gains for Labour across the UK.
How Labour fares in Scotland has always been an important aspect of whether they get a majority in Westminster.
Election latest: Love Actually star backs Greens
The biggest gutter punch in Scottish polling, however, is dealt to the Conservatives, who YouGov have on 11% – level with the Liberal Democrats. A pretty catastrophic position for a party that is the official opposition at Holyrood.
But voter attitudes change when considering their constituency in the 2026 Scottish elections.
As of 18 June, voter intentions shifted to 28% for the SNP, 24% Labour, 10% Conservatives, and 7% for the Lib Dems.
This tells us Scots treat UK and Scottish elections differently. It also suggests the former creates an opportunity for a protest vote.
Either a cry of frustration at 14 years of a Conservative government in Westminster – or the firing of a warning shot at the SNP’s record after 17 years in Holyrood.
The chaos of SNP leadership over the past 18 months and the collapse of their power-sharing deal with the Green Party could lead to voters turning elsewhere. But so many are still undecided.
Read more
Labour’s plans won’t close private schools
Major Tory donor defects to Reform UK
Starmer meant ‘no offence’ to Bangladeshi community
Some 1,059 people over the age of 16 were surveyed by YouGov between 20 and 25 June exclusively for Sky News.
Of those surveyed in Scotland, 14% have changed how they plan to vote over the past four weeks.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
The campaign period has clearly not cemented everyone’s votes.
Of those, 37% say it was down to how the parties and their leaders have conducted themselves.
Anas Sarwar at the Scottish Labour manifesto launch in Edinburgh. Pic: PA
Voters are watching every move, including how parties will act on what matters to them the most.
For people in Scotland, it’s the NHS and healthcare above all.
It was ranked the number one issue for voters this election, with 60% saying this will determine how they cast their ballot. That’s compared to 34% in a UK-wide sample.
The NHS tops the list despite it being a devolved issue.
Some 52% rank the cost of living next, 35% say the economy in general, 20% say immigration, and Scottish independence stands at 17%.
So many are no closer to deciding which box to tick and time is running out.
