Budget predictions are almost always futile, but the chancellor has done a good job of expectation management this morning as he paraded newsrooms to do a series of interviews.
He was overusing words like “prudent” and “responsible” in the clearest signal yet that this budget will be another opportunity for a fight between the two major parties to try to outdo each other on talking tough on the economy – to try and sound the most fiscally responsible.
But for the chancellor, it also does the job to lower expectations just days before a budget.
This serves two functions: firstly to give the element of surprise if he chooses to announce major giveaways next week, and secondly, to distance himself starkly away from Liz Truss’ notorious mini-budget.
It’s not a new tactic and remember, this is a government that brought back a former prime minister back into cabinet after all, so it would be foolish not to expect surprises on Wednesday.
Tax cuts have been hinted at by the government for months, so it was inevitable that Hunt would be asked about the scope of those measures, but now with much less headroom than expected.
Whether they even stick to fiscal rules this time around is another question.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Budget will be ‘prudent and responsible’
The chancellor was very happy to be drawn on the direction of travel though – hinting that the national insurance cut in the autumn statement was the start of a “journey” he was “happy to make progress on”.
Whether that’s a continuation to the cut of national insurance again or whether it will be upgraded to a cut to income tax is something backbench MPs will be watching closely for.
But many voters might not have even felt the effects of the national insurance rise yet, and it was telling that there was an extremely lukewarm response to any potential tax cuts from the British Chambers of Commerce this morning.
Read more:
Unfunded tax cuts ‘deeply unconservative’ – Hunt
What to expect from the budget – tax cuts to vaping duty
When is the budget – timings and how to watch
Whatever the giveaway might be on Wednesday, the Tories will be happy that it also places Labour in a tricky position.
It’ll be up to Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, to lay out her plan on how to claw that money back, or to get her party on side with any kind of tax cuts the Tories are proposing.
👉 Listen above then tap here to follow Electoral Dysfunction wherever you get your podcasts 👈
