The 2023 World Series matchup is set.
Starting Friday, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks will clash for the Commissioner’s Trophy in a meeting of powerful lineups and dominant starting pitchers.
One night after the Rangers booked their first trip to the Fall Classic since 2011 with a Game 7 victory over the Houston Astros, the Diamondbacks continued their stunning run with a 4-2 Game 7 win in Philadelphia.
What has October taught us about each of these teams? What does each squad need to do to come out on top? And which players could be the difference-makers on both sides? ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield break it down.
One player who has been consistent for the Rangers throughout October is Marcus Semien — but not in a good way. It’s hard to imagine the Rangers finishing this run off without Semien starting to book some better offensive results. Semien seemed to have better swings and approach in the last two games against Houston, and if that’s a precursor to him breaking out in the World Series, look out. The rest of the Rangers lineup seems to be in fine fettle — if Semien gets going, there is nowhere for opposing pitchers to hide.
Gonzalez: This one is easy: Jose Leclerc. Those who haven’t been following the Rangers this postseason might not be all that familiar with him, but he has become their go-to closer and most important reliever. The Rangers have navigated this entire year with a shaky bullpen, and as the stakes have continually ratcheted up, it has become clear that Bochy trusts very few pitchers with close leads late. One of those is certainly Josh Sborz. And perhaps the only other one is Leclerc, who has converted almost as many saves this postseason (three) as he did throughout the entire regular season (four). The 29-year-old right-hander was really good this year, with a 2.68 ERA and 67 strikeouts – though also 28 walks – in 67 innings. He can provide more than one inning, and he’ll undoubtedly be called on to do that in the World Series.
What’s the most impressive thing about the D-backs this postseason?
Rogers: Everything? But really, it’s been their ability to adjust on the fly — whether that’s to a raucous crowd, a slumping player or a struggling reliever. They’ve mixed and matched all over the place, and they have a manager who is willing to put his neck on the line. Simply put, they’ve maxed out on moments to get them where they are. Whatever you think of the matchup, it would be unwise to anoint the Rangers after what the D-backs have done this postseason. Every part of their roster helped get them to this point. There’s no reason that will change now.
Schoenfield: That they’ve made it this far even though their stars haven’t really carried the load. After a hot start to the postseason — 6-for-12 with two home runs in his first three games — Corbin Carroll was a non-factor until busting out in the finale of the NLCS with three hits, two runs, two stolen bases and a sac fly. The Diamondbacks lost both of Zac Gallen’s starts against the Phillies. Christian Walker, who led the team with 33 home runs, had two hits and drove in two runs in the NLCS. And yet, somehow they won all three of the non-Gallen/non-Merrill Kelly games, when everyone figured the only way for them to upset the Phillies was to have Gallen and Kelly dominate. Up is down, left is right, nothing about this team in the postseason really adds up — but they’re still playing baseball.
Why will it (or won’t it) work against the Rangers in the World Series?
Rogers: Now that they’ve gotten this far, why would anyone say the D-backs can’t keep doing their thing all the way to a title? This is a team that seems to have a different hero every game. And here’s another key to the D-backs success: They’re hitting home runs this postseason. That was a huge question mark coming into October. They’ve sprinkled in just enough to keep the opposition honest. In fact, it’s Alek Thomas — a part time starter — who leads them with four. It’s hard to imagine a conventional series win — there would have to be some grinding moments — but Arizona could pull off another shocker.
Schoenfield: It seems unlikely, doesn’t it? You can only rely so much on Brandon Pfaadt or Alek Thomas, and Ketel Marte can’t be the only player to consistently produce on offense. Then again, the Diamondbacks took advantage of the Phillies’ biggest weakness — Craig Kimbrel — to win Games 3 and 4, and it’s not like the Rangers have a lockdown late-game bullpen either as closer Jose Leclerc has been sketchy and also worked hard this postseason. But all you have to do is out-win the opponent over seven games, not outscore them.
Still, it feels like the keys will once again be Gallen and Kelly. The Rangers’ lineup finished the ALCS scoring 20 runs the final two games. They have home-field advantage where their OPS in the regular season was more than 100 points higher than on the road (they hit 143 home runs at home, 90 on the road). Given the Diamondbacks will have to rely have heavily on the bullpen in Games 3 and 4 and then again in Game 7 if it goes that far, it’s important that Gallen and Kelly also give them some length.
Who is the one player who must deliver for the D-backs to be champs from here?
Rogers: Gabriel Moreno. It might sound dramatic to choose a rookie catcher, but his impact on the Diamondbacks right now can’t be overstated. He’s been moved up in the lineup and now will need to call another great series against an offensive powerhouse. It’s so much to ask — but it has been every round, and he keeps coming through. Don’t forget his rocket arm, either — the Rangers didn’t run a lot during the regular season, but they have that tool in their toolbox. If Moreno can keep doing exactly what he’s doing, he’ll be a big reason the Diamondbacks have a shot at this.
Schoenfield: Carroll. They’re going to have to score runs to beat the Rangers, which means they’ll need production from someone besides Marte at the top of the order. Until Game 7, when he seemed more himself, Carroll looked a little overmatched against the Phillies until his big Game 7, and perhaps the fatigue of the long season has caught up to him. His groundball rate has gone from 45% in the regular season to 55% in the postseason (and 65% in the NLCS); he’s clearly had issues driving the ball. Maybe it’s a slump — and perhaps his late breakout points to as much — but if it is fatigue, the Arizona offense might be in trouble.
