As the MLB trade deadline approaches, the decision to add or subtract from a team is usually made by the standings.
Every year, however, there are bubble teams that are close to the playoff race but haven’t necessarily proved themselves in the win/loss column, leaving their front offices with a tougher decision to make.
ESPN has identified eight such teams, and with the Aug. 1 deadline exactly two weeks away, time is running out.
“They’re really making decisions the last weekend before the trade deadline,” Philadelphia Phillies president Dave Dombrowski said. “You wait as long as you can.
“You always want to make the playoffs because once you make it, we know anything can happen. However, and I’m just speaking for me, you have to be realistic with yourself. Do you have a club that’s good enough to advance, or in your heart, do you really not feel that way? It’s an important distinction.”
Adding to the challenge this season is the fact that the first-place team in the AL Central is hovering around .500, while the last-place team in the AL East is six games over. That will undoubtedly lead to varying degrees of going for it or electing to trade away veterans. And, according to Dombrowski, it makes it even more important for front-office decision-makers to understand their own team’s circumstances rather than relying just on a number of games they trail in the standings.
“Every market is different,” he said. “Every owner is different. Every team is different. You’re not the unilateral decision-maker. What happens if you’re with a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 10 years? That can be huge. That can be different than a team that’s in it all the time but is having a down year.”
With all that in mind, ESPN employed the services of a current MLB assistant general manager (whose team is not on the bubble) to help decide the fate of our eight bubble teams. Here’s his take.
Record: 48-47
Odds to make the postseason: 81.6%
Verdict: Small addition
Needs: Right-handed hitter
In our exec’s words: The Twins could use help against left-handed pitching, but mostly they need to be healthy. If their best players act like it, they can make a run, but there’s no need to trade away their best prospects.
Record: 46-48
Postseason odds: 16.4%
Verdict: Stand pat
In our exec’s words: The Guardians simply aren’t going to replace injured starters Shane Bieber or Cal Quantrill (or Triston McKenzie) with blockbuster deals. If they get healthy, they’ll have a shot. They stood pat last year and won the division easily.
“We’re a small-market team,” GM Mike Chernoff said. “Unlike some other places, where you’re constantly thinking ‘How do we go for it in the moment,’ we have to be thinking about how do we sustain our competitiveness.
“You’ve seen over the years, we’ve tried to thread the needle in how we do it. Thankfully it’s been successful in the past.”
Record: 47-48
Postseason odds: 3.5%
Verdict: Deal away vets
Available: Ace/DH, corner infield
In our exec’s words: When it comes to Shohei Ohtani, the Angels won’t show their hand until the last minute. If not Ohtani — or in addition to him — others will be moved.
“With Mike Trout out, it’s made their decision easier,” another executive added. “It would have been a lot tougher to trade Ohtani if [Trout] wasn’t hurt. We’ll see.”
Record: 47-46
Postseason odds: 9.5%
Verdict: Add
Needs: Hitting, especially an offensive upgrade at second base
In our exec’s words: This is another team whose best players simply have to show up — including Julio Rodriguez. But that doesn’t mean the Mariners should stand pat. Offensive production at both second base and designated hitter has been a problem.
Record: 42-51
Postseason odds: 1.3%
Verdict: Stand pat
In our exec’s words: The Tigers might work around the edges with their future in mind, but president of baseball operations Scott Harris is new on the job. He’s likely not in go-for-it mode, but he doesn’t have to do a major sell-off either.
“On balance if a team is three to five games back, more than they used to, you’ll see teams trying to hang in there,” another executive added.
Record: 43-50
Postseason odds: 13.2 %
Verdict: Deal away vets
Available: Starting pitching, OF/DH
In our exec’s words: The Mets can always dip back into free agency during the winter. Sending out feelers for any of their veterans, including Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, makes sense.
“They’re not winning this year,” another executive said. “I’m not sure if Steve Cohen can be convinced of it, but I am.”
Record: 43-50
Postseason odds: 20.5%
Verdict: Deal away vets
Available: Starting pitching, left-handed bat
It’s been a weird year for them, but Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger are about as good as it gets if they’re on the market. Maybe the Cubs will stand pat, thinking Cincinnati will come back to the pack. But Milwaukee will be tough.
“At the end of the day, you’re making a decision around this year’s playoff odds and future years’ playoff odds,” Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said. “The exact record doesn’t matter if you get it down to that granular level, but it doesn’t feel very comfortable being under .500 and in a supercompetitive position.
“There’s playoff odds, and then there’s World Series odds. I don’t think there’s much history of teams being under .500 winning the World Series.”
Record: 44-50
Postseason odds: 20.7%
Verdict: Stand pat
In our exec’s words: When has Padres general manager A.J. Preller ever stood pat? This might be the year. There’s no way the Padres can add again — not with a depleted farm system and their place in the standings — but there’s no reason to trade away any of their major players either. Maybe they can make a second-half run, but there’s always next year.
