It’s opening week, and you know what that means — season predictions!
There are lots of questions going into the 2023 season: What does Year 2 of MLB’s expanded playoffs have to offer? How will rule changes play out over the season? Is this the year your favorite team will make a run in October, or your favorite player will win a postseason award?
No one can definitively know what’s in store for us this season, but that doesn’t stop us from making our best guesses. We put 28 ESPN writers, analysts and editors on the spot to predict what will happen in baseball this year, from the wild-card contenders all the way up to the World Series champion, plus the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in both leagues.
For each category, we’ve asked a contributor or two to explain why they chose what they chose. Did they hit the nail on the head or were they way off their mark? Only time can tell — and you better believe we’ll be circling back to these predictions come October.
Let’s see what our experts had to say.
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AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our pick: New York Yankees (16 votes)
Who else got votes? Toronto Blue Jays (11), Tampa Bay Rays (1)
Why will the Yankees win the AL East?
The Yankees will win the AL East by a slim margin over the Blue Jays and Rays because their injured rotation will get healthy — and when they are, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino and Nestor Cortes can match any foursome in the game. The Yankees needed a spark, a player that might make them a better offensive team in October. They might have found him in rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe, whose first live batting practice of spring training began with a home run over the batter’s eye off Rodon. The next pitch, Volpe homered over the left field fence. Talk about knocking the door down. — Tim Kurkjian
What is the Blue Jays’ path to winning the division?
The Blue Jays were plenty dangerous last season until facing the Mariners in October. They had the lineup and the aces to advance as the Phillies did. This season, the Jays will take the AL East over the Yankees and Rays. Rotation depth matters, as well as bullpen and lineup depth, and the Jays have it all. They needed offensive upgrades, notably from the left side, and added Brandon Belt and Daulton Varsho. Getting defensive stalwart Kevin Kiermaier was critical, too. Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi will bounce back. This is a complete team that can represent the AL. — Eric Karabell
AL Central
Our pick: Cleveland Guardians (15 votes)
Who else got votes? Chicago White Sox (7), Minnesota Twins (6)
Why will the White Sox beat out the Guardians for the division title?
If we choose to put stock in exit comments from Jose Abreu about not being a “family,” it helps frame why a team with this much talent can stall out. They have a potent and deep lineup that will be chomping at the bat rack. They also have some stellar arms in their rotation to balance it out. Their manager (Pedro Grifol) has been waiting an eternity for this opportunity, and he will hit the ground running, literally. They have more offensive firepower than Cleveland but they must catch the ball and keep the uber talented Eloy Jiménez from running into a fence. Please. — Doug Glanville
AL West
Our pick: Houston Astros (26 votes)
Who else got votes? Seattle Mariners (2)
Why did you pick the Mariners to win the AL West?
(1) The starting rotation is strong and deep, and they have Luis Castillo the entire season. (2) They upgraded at positions that were offensive black holes last season (Teoscar Hernandez, Kolten Wong). (3) The bullpen is good. (4) Jarred Kelenic is — gasp! — figuring things out. (5) Cal Raleigh is going to hit 35 home runs. (6) Julio Rodriguez is a super-duper star.
Look, the Astros are a powerhouse; Vegas has made them the betting favorite to win the World Series and become the first repeat champ since the 2000 Yankees. But Justin Verlander is a huge loss, Jose Altuve is out for a couple of months, lack of depth is a concern, there is some age in the lineup and, frankly, it’s time a few things just happen to go wrong. — David Schoenfield
AL wild cards
Our picks: Seattle Mariners (20 votes), Tampa Bay Rays (17), Toronto Blue Jays (16)
Who else got votes? New York Yankees (13), Los Angeles Angels (10), Texas Rangers (3), Houston Astros (2), Minnesota Twins (2), Chicago White Sox (1)
The Rays have made it to the postseason the last four years, and you and 16 other voters are predicting a fifth. To what do they owe their consistency to?
The Rays have become a player-development behemoth that majors in run prevention as well as practically any team in baseball. From 2018-22, there were three teams that allowed fewer than four runs per game — the Dodgers, Astros and Rays. And every year in that span, their minor-league system ranked in the top two in organizational winning percentage. Their regenerative success has enabled them to thrive at the big-league level, paying cents on the dollar in relation to many of their peers. — Paul Hembekides
You and nine other voters picked the Angels as a wild-card team. Why do you think they’ll make it?
This offseason, the Angels did what they long needed to do — they filled their 40-man roster with more major league-quality players, and thus, significantly increased their floor. A roster that for years was incredibly top-heavy with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani and very little beneath them is now a lot more well-rounded, particularly on the position-player side. Their rotation, meanwhile, was sneaky good last year and should be better with the addition of Tyler Anderson. This could be the year they finally break through. If they want to keep Ohtani, it probably has to be. — Alden Gonzalez
The Rangers received just three wild-card votes, and you were one of them. How do you think they’ll sneak into the playoffs?
The Rangers have made an all-in commitment, spending $500-plus million during the 2021-22 offseason and nearly $300 million on pitching this winter, while bringing in a three-time championship manager in Bruce Bochy. And, at least for now, their rebuilt rotation is healthy. If the team can maintain that good fortune in the injury department for long enough, I see them mounting a competitive enough start that they’d make aggressive, in-season moves to fill any prospective holes. There often seems to be a surprise wild-card team, and the Rangers are atop that list for me. — Tristan Cockcroft
AL champion
Ohtani is the best player in baseball, thriving as both a versatile offensive player and a dominant starting pitcher. He’s already earned one AL MVP award, and now it is time for him to take the top pitcher award, too. Frankly, he could have won it last season, as he compiled more pitcher bWAR than Verlander, led the AL in strikeouts per nine innings and was fourth in ERA. It is a wide-open AL Cy Young race with Verlander in the NL and as long as the voters are cool with Ohtani winning multiple awards, he will deserve it. — Karabell
Why do you think Javier will win the AL Cy Young?
Can I just say, “I heart Cristian Javier”? He made my fantasy value picks column for 2023, after his tough-to-decipher combo of high-spin fastball and darting slider that fueled a 2019 Double-A breakthrough contributed to a pair of combined Astros no-hitters last season. Javier has filthy stuff, and while the big question about his Cy Young candidacy ties to whether he’ll amass the innings required to seize writers’ votes, I think on a per-inning basis he’s as good as anyone in the league. I like a good long-shot pick, and he’s my guy. — Cockcroft
NL MVP
Our pick: Ronald Acuña Jr. (8 votes)
Who else got votes? Juan Soto (6), Trea Turner (5), Manny Machado (4), Freddie Freeman (2), Mookie Betts (1), Nolan Arenado (1), Matt Olson (1)
Why do you think Soto will beat out Acuña for NL MVP?
Certainly Acuña is a great all-around player, and if he goes 30/40 … or 40/40 … or 40/50 … I may well regret this choice. But his bat is not like Soto’s. No one’s is, really. Since Soto’s debut in 2018, he has been on base 1,130 times — more than anybody but Freddie Freeman. When Soto is locked in, he’s one of the best power hitters on the planet. The lack of pop with San Diego last year bothered him, and with something to prove and a phenomenal roster surrounding him, we’re primed to see the best of Soto this season. — Passan
You were the only vote for Betts. Explain why you chose him.
Since 2015, only Trout has more bWAR, and that’s just by a fraction. Since 2018, when Ohtani entered the majors, Betts has nearly 3.0 more bWAR than any other player. For me, Betts has reached that rarefied space where he is both appreciated for elite skills and all-around performance, but also a little overlooked because he’s as constant as the Northern Star. The NL MVP race has been fairly wide open in recent seasons, and I just don’t see any way that Betts doesn’t win another. Since he’s hitting his age-30 season, it probably will be sooner rather than later. Finally, there is a chance that his performance will stand out a little more on this version of the Dodgers, who might have to lean a little more on their stars this season. — Doolittle
NL Rookie of the Year
Our pick: Corbin Carroll (18 votes)
Who else got votes? Miguel Vargas (5), Jordan Walker (4), Kodai Senga (1)
Why do you think Corbin Carroll will win NL Rookie of the Year?
Because we’ve already seen him perform at the highest level, as evidenced by the .830 OPS he put up in 115 plate appearances last season. Carroll played most of the 2022 season at the age of 21. It acted as his first full season of professional baseball, and yet he surged through Double-A and Triple-A and seemed very much ready for the big leagues. Carroll can hit for average, slug, play elite defense and run with the best of them. He’s very polished for a player his age and should only get better, given that he has played in only 174 games as a pro. — Gonzalez
NL Cy Young
Our pick: Corbin Burnes (6 votes)
Who else got votes? Julio Urias (4), Spencer Strider (4), Sandy Alcantara (3), Max Fried (3), Justin Verlander (2), Max Scherzer (2), Joe Musgrove (1), Aaron Nola (1), Logan Webb (1)
There’s no clear favorite in the NL Cy Young race. Why is that?
The addition of Verlander to the NL added to a crowded field of Cy Young candidates led by the reigning 2022 winner, Alcantara. But the Marlins righty isn’t a sure thing to repeat. As elite teams have loaded up on starting pitchers, several have multiple arms that could take home the honor in 2023. — Rogers
Why do you think Alcantara will repeat as the NL Cy Young winner?
Seems like every time I called a Braves series, Braves manager Brian Snitker would mention how Alcantara is the best pitcher on Earth. He has electric stuff on the first pitch and psychic powers on the last pitch. He is a legendary Pokémon on the mound. Everything he throws is an optical illusion. Hard to dethrone the best pitcher on Earth unless of course, you recruit on Mars. Can someone turn one of those rovers into a scout? Even so, it would take 9 months to get him back to Earth anyway. Oh well. — Glanville
Why is Burnes our voters’ favorite to win?
Over the past three seasons, Burnes has a 2.62 ERA, a 33.4% strikeout rate and a .558 OPS allowed. Among qualified starters, those totals rank first (tied with Scherzer), first (ahead of Cole) and first again (46 points ahead of Scherzer). He wasn’t quite as dominant in 2022 as in his Cy Young campaign of 2021, but he did pitch 202 innings — a 35-inning increase — so he also showed he can handle a heavier workload. There are a lot of good candidates, but Burnes is the best starter in baseball entering the season. — Schoenfield
Why is your pick Strider?
Seeing as there’s no clear favorite, I went pure upside. Strider’s strikeout rate of 13.83 per nine was the highest ever for a starting pitcher with at least 100 innings. If you extrapolate Strider’s per-start innings average over 33 outings and he replicates the K rate, he’ll strike out 271 batters in 177 innings. Perhaps he’ll need to up the innings total slightly to stand alongside Alcantara, Burnes, Verlander and Scherzer, but Strider has taken care of the hard part — dominating hitters — already. — Passan
