Brace yourself, friends: We’re going to be talking about the Noles quite a bit in 2023. After winning their last six games of 2022 to finish with double-digit wins for the first time in six years, Mike Norvell and Florida State have entered the offseason with the most returning production in all of the FBS.
At the moment, FSU returns 87% of last year’s production — 80% on offense (11th overall) and 94% on defense (second). The Seminoles lead the way in this year’s rankings, while other teams with exciting 2022 stories have plenty to be encouraged about as well. Kansas and UConn bowled for the first time in 14 and seven years, respectively, and they rank second and sixth in returning production. Michigan just made its second straight College Football Playoff, with its second straight Big Ten title, and ranks a tantalizing fifth.
Full 2023 SP+ projections will run next week. As always, those projections stem from three primary questions: How good has your team been recently? How well has it recruited? And who returns from last year’s roster?
The latter question is the focus of today’s discussion. While high or low returning production percentages don’t guarantee a good or bad team, they do correlate well with improvement and regression.
For a few years now, I’ve been attempting to expand how we measure returning production. The formula I have created shifts with each new year of data and has had to shift quite a bit with the recent heavy increase in transfers.
Here are the returning production percentages and rankings for all 133 FBS teams. (Yes, there are 133 teams now. Please welcome Sam Houston and Jacksonville State to the party!)
