The first rankings from the College Football Playoff selection committee will be unveiled on Tuesday night, and only one thing seems certain: Georgia will be No. 1.
The undefeated Bulldogs have been dominant on defense and have already clinched the SEC East. But which teams will come next? Oklahoma is undefeated and has scored more than 50 points in three of its past four games. However, the Sooners earlier struggled to put away West Virginia and, ahem, Kansas.
Cincinnati is unbeaten too, but it might have only one victory that actually resonates with the selection committee: a 24-13 road win at Notre Dame. Michigan State is also 8-0 and finally has some meat on its résumé after a 37-33 victory against rival Michigan.
And what about the one-loss teams? Defending national champion Alabama might be the second-most talented team behind Georgia, but why did the Crimson Tide’s defense play so poorly in a 41-38 loss at Texas A&M? And while Ohio State is playing like one of the four best teams in the FBS, can the committee really put the Buckeyes ahead of one-loss Oregon? The Ducks have perhaps the best victory of anyone, 35-28 at Ohio State on Sept. 11.
Here are some overreactions as we get ready to see the first CFP rankings:
The selection committee is going to treat Cincinnati unfairly
If Cincinnati isn’t among the top four teams in Tuesday night’s rankings, we’re going to hear conspiracies about how the selection committee is just never going to put a Group of 5 team in the CFP, and, dadgumit, it’s not fair. The Bearcats are No. 2 in the AP poll and the AFCA coaches poll, so they have to be No. 2 in the CFP rankings, right?
Well, what if the Bearcats don’t deserve to be in the top four, at least not yet? Sure, Cincinnati’s 11-point win at Notre Dame is one of the better nonconference victories of the season. But who else have the Bearcats defeated so far? One other FBS team with a winning record (5-3 Central Florida) and five other opponents (Miami of Ohio, Indiana, Temple, Navy and Tulane) who are a combined 12-28.
When Cincinnati knocked off Indiana and Notre Dame in consecutive games, there was a popular belief that beating two Power 5 opponents and winning the AAC might be enough to get the Bearcats in the playoff. Here’s the problem: The Hoosiers aren’t any good. In fact, they haven’t won a Big Ten game and haven’t even defeated a Power 5 opponent this season. Their two victories came against FCS program Idaho and Western Kentucky. And the Bearcats’ remaining regular-season schedule ranks No. 82 and includes just one opponent with a winning record (SMU at 7-1).
In my opinion, for whatever that’s worth, Cincinnati deserves to be at about No. 6 in the initial CFP rankings, behind Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan State and Oregon (and maybe even Ohio State). If the Bearcats defeat SMU at home on Nov. 20 and then Houston in the AAC championship game, then we can start having a conversation about whether they deserve to be in the top four.
Georgia is playing the wrong quarterback
The No. 1 Bulldogs clobbered rival Florida 34-7 on Saturday, even though the Gators outgained them in total offense by a yard, 355-354. It wasn’t quarterback Stetson Bennett‘s best performance, as the former walk-on completed 10 of 19 passes for 161 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. The touchdown was a very nice throw to Kearis Jackson, and the picks were poor decisions he’d undoubtedly like to have back.
With four games to go in the regular season, the burning question around the Peach State — other than whether the Braves are really going to blow the World Series — has become: Can the Bulldogs beat Alabama in the SEC championship game with Bennett at quarterback?
Former starter JT Daniels, a transfer from USC, hasn’t played in more than a month because of a lat injury. Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart said Daniels was available to play against the Gators and practiced some during the bye week.
But Daniels didn’t play, even after Georgia pulled away in the second half. Smart said his staff elected to go with Bennett for the fourth straight game because he’d practiced more than Daniels over the past two weeks and they wanted to keep the continuity he had with the offense.
On Monday, Smart said Bennett’s mobility was also a factor in deciding to go with him.
“It’s a separator, but I mean there’s things that JT is better at than Stetson, but it’s one of the things that’s a factor,” Smart said “Mobility in a quarterback is critical. It’s not that JT’s immobile … it’s just that Stetson is very mobile. Stetson is able to make some plays with his feet.
” I thought there were five or six plays in the [Florida] game where his mobility was a factor. We had breakdowns, and you’re going to have some, on offense. And when you have those, you gotta have somebody who can get you out of a bad play, and I don’t mean by way of check, I mean during the play and he does a good job of doing that.”
At this point, Smart might do more damage to his team’s chemistry by replacing Bennett with Daniels, unless Bennett plays poorly. If it’s not broken, don’t fix it.
“When you talk about trusting a guy, I trust [Bennett] because he goes out and works, and always puts his best foot forward every day,” Georgia linebacker Nolan Smith said. “Even though it may not look pretty to y’all, he gets the job done.”
A quarterback will win the Heisman
Let’s once again count the quarterbacks who have fallen off the Heisman cliff this season: Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler was benched in favor of freshman Caleb Williams; Daniels and Miami’s D’Eriq King are hurt; North Carolina’s Sam Howell and USC’s Kedon Slovis are leading 4-4 teams; and Clemson’s D.J. Uiagalelei is directing a 5-3 team.
Even fast-rising candidates, such as Kenny Pickett at Pitt and Matt Corral at Ole Miss, faltered in losses on Saturday. Pickett threw for 519 yards with three touchdowns, but also had two interceptions in a 38-34 loss to Miami. Corral was held without a touchdown pass (he did have a scoring run) in a 31-20 defeat at Auburn.
So who’s left in the Heisman race? Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III might be the most deserving candidate at this point. He ran for 197 yards with five touchdowns against the Wolverines. The Wake Forest transfer leads the FBS with 149.3 rushing yards per game to go with 14 touchdowns. And there are still quarterbacks to consider: Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud certainly remain in the mix, along with Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder and Oklahoma’s Williams.
Better yet, how about breaking up the stiffed-armed trophy and giving it to the stars of Georgia’s defense? Linebacker Nakobe Dean can take the head, linebackers Nolan Smith and Adam Anderson can have the arms, and give the rest to defensive linemen Jordan Davis, Devonte Wyatt, Travon Walker and Jalen Carter. No unit has made a bigger impact this season.
Clemson was the most overrated team in 2021
We knew from the start of the 2021 season that the Tigers weren’t going to be nearly as good without quarterback Trevor Lawrence and tailback Travis Etienne, as they struggled to do much of anything in a 10-3 loss to Georgia in the opener. As injuries piled up on both sides of the ball, the Tigers limped to a 2-2 start before rallying to win three of their past four games.
While most people wrote off Clemson pretty early, we failed to recognize that Iowa was just fool’s gold during its 6-0 start. The Hawkeyes knocked off rival Iowa State, blew out Maryland on the road and then squeaked past Penn State at home. Iowa looked like a CFP contender and Big Ten favorite, at least on defense.
But then the wheels came off. The Hawkeyes lost to Purdue 24-7 at home and 27-7 to Wisconsin on the road. They threw four interceptions against the Boilermakers and lost three fumbles against the Badgers. Iowa managed just 156 yards of offense against Wisconsin, including 24 rushing.
Through eight games, the Hawkeyes rank 85th in scoring (25.4 points), 104th in passing (186.5 yards), 117th in rushing (105 yards) and 124th in total offense (291.5) among FBS teams. It’s a shame, too, because they had a CFP-worthy defense.
